Voices on Project Management

Dave Wakeman

October 2023

Andy Jordan wrote an interesting article recently on rebranding risk. That got me thinking about people’s relationship to risk, especially since any decision we make has a certain amount of risk involved.

Here I share a few ways that I suggest you think about risk….

1. Know that every decision carries risk.

There is no such thing as a risk-free decision.

Acting on something carries risk.

Not acting on something carries risk.

Recognizing that any action requires a certain comfort with the unknown allows you to move to a more productive posture. One focused on the opportunity at hand.

Instead of thinking you’ll eliminate risk, this type of thinking can enable you to focus on risk management.

• What are the possible outcomes and risks if we take action?
• What is the possibility if we do nothing?
• Are there things we can do to limit or eliminate potential downsides?
• What about the upsides to inaction?
• The upsides to action?

It is unlikely that you’ll find a risk-free solution, but you can probably find a course of action where the potential reward is greater than the perceived danger in taking action.

2. Understand that if risk wasn’t involved, there would be no change.

The twin to the first point is that risk comes with change. Every action carries a certain amount of risk, certainly. There is also no guarantee that your risk will succeed.

At the same time, there is often risk because you need to create change in a project or an organization. Understanding the necessity of risk to change helps people take action.

As Tottenham Hotspur manager Ange Postecoglou observed, “If you want change, you have to do something differently.”

That’s at the heart of risk management: You can’t expect things to be different if you don’t do things differently.

Risk is a prerequisite of change.

3. Move your focus to the opportunities at hand.

It could be that the opportunity in front of you will improve your processes in a way that will enable you to save time, money and other resources in a project with a tight budget.

The opportunity could be in building out a new product or service that opens your business up to new chances.

The opportunity could come in the form of learning and development of your team members or yourself.

Opportunity is all over. But it often comes because of the change that new solutions or new processes create.

Learning a new skill/process or creating a new product is all risky stuff, but risk is the partner of opportunity. Again, without change, nothing new happens—and that requires risk.

I appreciate Andy thinking about risk in a new way. For me, I always look at the opportunity first. Then, think about risk later. That is sometimes risky as well—because there have been occasions where I could have used a bit more patience before action.

Of course, some of these risky actions paid off incredibly. And that’s the point: Risk and reward go hand in hand. Nothing changes without change, and that is risky.

How do you think about risk in your own projects…and life?

By Yasmina Khelifi, PMI-ACP, PMI-PBA, PMP

Since the start of the pandemic, changes in our ways of working, our ways of interacting, and with new technologies have accelerated. It's hard to keep up, and sometimes you plan to upskill—but you can’t find the time. Keep these three things in mind as you navigate our new normal:

1. Talk with people
Since 2020, I've been more engaged in communities: a marketing community, a project management community, and a coaching community. Each has its own rules of engagement. Some encourage one-to-one video calls—and that's the best way to push yourself to talk with people who may be of different academic backgrounds, work experiences and industries from yourself. Communities or professional associations (like PMI and its local chapters) can help you expand your network.

In addition, you can expand your network easily by reaching out and connecting with people after you take part in webinars or face-to-face events, or when you listen to a podcast you liked.

I also like to schedule informational interviews with people. The aim is to gather information about an industry, a role, and how people have gotten there. The aim is not to ask for a job or to send your CV. The interviewee must be open and share as much as they can. If you are the interviewee, don't expect the interviewer to ask you questions about what they don't know. Describe what you do, the diplomas or certifications in the field, and remove the local jargon.

You may think "people are too busy" to do this, but you'd be surprised by the number of helpful responses you get. After each informational interview, write down what you learned, and where you need to learn more; along with what you did and didn’t like about what you heard.

2. Be kind to yourself
It’s easy to blame yourself with negative thoughts like "I'm too slow" or "I don't know what I want." But for some people, it takes time to know what they do and don’t like, along with their strengths and how they want to have an impact. There are also personal and family constraints to consider.

So be kind to yourself and find a supportive network of friends so you can formulate the different steps and what you learned in the process.

I remember a colleague I talked with many years ago who wanted to change jobs. I met him a few months ago, and he told me with a shameful face, "After all of that, I didn't change." And that is okay. If the end result is no change, there is no shame because at least you took the time to explore new paths. You learned about yourself during the process, and you met new people.

Don’t compare yourself with others. That’s easier said than done, but remember that we all have different paths.

3. Go to a professional for help
As a project manager, you can work in different roles in the same industry or even transition to a new industry. Project management has transferable skills, but changing your industry may not be so easy. You may need to pave the path with certifications, diplomas, or online courses. Some options are risky for valid reasons. For example, I will not take the risk of managing a nuclear project (and would an employer trust me to do so when I’ve had no experience in that field?).

If you’re becoming too anxious or overwhelmed, or if you feel lost, seek professional help to get guidance to make sense of what you feel and want.

What other things do you recommend to help define your next career step as a project leader?

By Lynda Bourne

Ptolemy's world map (source: Wikipedia)

Do modern project managers and their clients rely on their charts and reports too much? We all know that project schedules, cost reports, risk assessments and other reports are produced by sophisticated computer software, these days increasingly enhanced by artificial intelligence. But does this sophisticated processing mean the charts are completely reliable?

The modern world is increasingly reliant on computer systems to direct and control many aspects of life—from self-driving cars, to autonomous warehouses, to the flight control systems in aircraft. But can this reliance on computer systems be translated to project controls information, or do we need a more ancient mindset?

Modern navigators rely on the accuracy of their GPS to know exactly where they are and where they are going. The autopilots are better than the human, but the data being used is precise and validated.

The same level of reliability and accuracy cannot be applied to project controls data. Every estimate is an assessment of what may occur in the future based on what happened in the past. Even when a sophisticated risk model is built, the P80 or P90 result is based on subjective range estimates taken from past events.

The future may unfold within the expected parameters, and it may not. We simply cannot determine the future in advance. While the quality of the project predictions is based on the quality of the data being used in the modelling processes (and the only guaranteed fact is the model will be incorrect), predictions do not control the future. The key question is: How useful are the models in helping navigate the project through to a successful conclusion? [Remember GIGO (garbage in, garbage out)?!]

In days gone by, navigators did not need accurate charts and satnav systems to reach their destinations. The Viking and Polynesian navigators crossed thousands of miles of open ocean to land on small islands using observations of the natural environment and tacit knowledge passed down from earlier generations. They knew certain seabird species only ventured relatively short distances from land, how clouds formed and changed over land, etc., augmented by primitive technologies.

Fast-forward a few centuries, and the early European navigators (Columbus, Magellan, Drake, Cook and countless others) had steadily improving charts that made navigating easier—but they also knew the best charts available were not accurate. The general shape of the world had been mapped since the time of Ptolemy (circa 150 CE), and as better information became available, better maps and charts were created. But these are still continuing to be improved into the 21^st century.

So how did people navigate the globe without accurate maps and charts? I suggest there were four core elements in the approach, all of which can be applied to modern project management:

1. Recognize the chart is a guide, get the best possible chart available and use it to plan your course—taking into account as much additional information and tacit knowledge you can access.
2. Then, assume the chart is incorrect. Keep a sharp look out for unexpected issues and dangers, adjust course as needed, and keep collecting information along the way. You only run into the rocks you do not see!
3. Keep adapting and adjusting your course to make the best of the current circumstances, using both known and emerging information—the destination does not change, but how you get there may.
4. Then use the new information you have gathered to update the chart to benefit future voyages in the same direction.

To move from assuming controls information is correct, to seeing it as a useful guide that can be improved as better knowledge becomes available, requires a paradigm shift in thinking that sits comfortably alongside many of the concepts of agile.

The future is inherently uncertain and we can learn a lot from the way early navigators used imprecise charts to sail the oceans. Navigating the globe in past centuries and leading a project to a successful conclusion are both risky endeavours; this fact needs to be accepted, and the risks minimized by using the best available charts—while being aware of their limitations.

What do you think?

By Soma Bhattacharya

The entire purpose of creating a process is to ensure that the roadmap is followed. Everything is supposed to unfold as planned and predicted. 

But following the status quo has always been a problem for me, because we should have the courage to break it when we know it can be done better. In most cases we don’t, because that’s how we are mentally wired. 

Why do we follow the regular path? Why do we never think of breaking the process? I recently read the book The Pathless Path: Imagining a New Story for Work and Life by Paul Millerd, and that led me to believe that there are people who are questioning the status quo (of course, the percentage is very low, but still there). 

Process in most organizations or teams is something that, once determined, is just part of the routine. Numbers and reports come up every month, but no one takes the time to actually look at and question them. When that’s the path we take, the meaning of every ceremony or sync-up or meeting gets lost. Now we just do them because we are supposed to. 

So, does the process really lead you anywhere? Self-discovery? Team bonding? Dynamic teamwork? Better thinking? If the answer is no, it’s time to change the process.

Process for me triggers thinking. So instead of looking into the “tasks to get done” every day, do you want to replace it with something else? Maybe look at team deliverables with detailed data? When you run a team survey, do you want to include sensitive questions like, “Are you experiencing burnout?” And instead of pushing back the evitable, we try to create a system that allows everyone to develop insights into their own (and the team’s) performance. 

Here are some things to think about:

1. Replace the standard three daily standup questions with better questions, so the work you do is acknowledged. Focus on the work done as much as you focus on what needs to get done.

2. Team retrospectives can be done with anonymous surveys to bring out better inputs that actually improve team health. Remember, happier teams = better outputs.

3. During planning, look at how much churn happens every sprint, and why. What can be done to reduce it? Is any rework taking a toll on teams?

4. Encourage everyone to question the planning, and come up with better plans (especially the newcomers—they need to feel engaged and listened to).

5. Don’t be afraid to bring in a new way of thinking or planning if it works for everyone. 

Agile is for everyone, not just for team leads and domain experts. When everyone participates, they feel included and acknowledged—and the process brings out the best.          

By Peter Tarhanidis, Ph.D.

One of the impacts artificial intelligence has had is prompting a reconstitution of project management. Here I look to leading industry experts to explore the benefits to project management systems due to matured AI software; and the maturity of the project manager as a data- and fact-driven champion of business outcomes and innovation. This combination of advanced project systems performance and leadership competence will significantly transform project success rates.

As a background to the current state of project management, HBR states that $48 trillion is invested annually in projects. The Standish Group notes that only 35% of projects are successful, and 65% of projects waste resources and have unrealized benefits.

Additionally, Proofhub attributes project failure to firms that lack project management delivery systems; they are prone to miss targets and overspend. It noted that 67% of projects fail because project management is undervalued; 44% of all managers do not believe in the importance of project management software; and 46% of firms place a high priority on project management. Also noted: Utilizing a good software program reduces failure by 10%, and scope creep by 17%.

More specifically, a PMI Learning Library article noted some reasons for project failure:

1. Unclear goals and objectives
2. Lack of resource planning
3. Poor communication across the organization
4. Inadequate stakeholder management
5. Poorly defined project scope
6. Inaccurate cost and time estimates
7. Inadequate risk management
8. Inexperienced project managers
9. Unrealistic expectations

Maturing Systems
An HBR article suggests that poor project success rates are due to a low level of available mature systems. Many firms continue to rely on spreadsheets, slides and other applications that haven’t matured current practices. While the current tools are adequate in measuring project performance, they do not allow for the development of intelligent automation and collaboration across the portfolio of projects. The opportunity to apply AI to project management could improve the success ratio by a quantifiable 25%, or trillions of dollars of newly realized benefits for firms and society.

Gartner Inc. analysts predict that by 2030, AI software—driven by conversational AI, machine learning and robotic process automation for gathering data, reporting and tracking—will eliminate 80% of all project management office tasks. Gartner identifies project management disruption in six aspects:

1. Better selection and prioritization
2. Support for the project management office
3. Improved, faster project definition, planning and reporting
4. Virtual project assistants
5. Advanced testing systems and software
6. A new role for the project manager

PwC envisions AI-enabled project management software will improve a project leader’s decision-making process across the following five key areas crucial to success:

1. Business insights improvements by filtering better data for relevant knowledge
2. Risk management assessing scenarios that offer mitigation strategies
3. Human capital in allocating resources more appropriately to meet the business priorities
4. Integrating various technologies and specialists to improve project outcomes
5. Active assistance by enhancing administrative tasks and stakeholder progress communications

PwC posits the advancements in project management software are an opportunity for firms and leaders that are most ready to take advantage of this disruption and reap the rewards.

PM Competence
PMI’s Project Manager Competency Development (PMCD) Framework provides an assessment and development of a project manager’s competence. It is based on the premise that competencies have a direct effect on performance. A project manager’s competence can be categorized in terms of project management knowledge, project management performance and their accomplishments, and personal competency in performing the project activities and personality characteristics. This combination is the stated success criteria for a competent project manager.

AI’s capability to assess disparate sources of big data to obtain actionable insights arms project managers with improved decision-making competence throughout the project lifecycle. However, a challenge noted by PwC’s recent analysis of OECD data (covering 200,000 jobs in 29 countries) warns that AI’s job displacement effect will automate 30% of jobs involving administrative manual tasks by the mid-2030s. This indicates a clear need to upskill project manager competence in order to thrive in the future.

In order to succeed, a firm’s culture of adaptability and lifelong learning is a cornerstone for shifting today’s project management roles into the future. They will need to expand competence in soft skills, business and management skills, technical and digital skills—all working in concert with each other.

IAPM states project managers will face fundamental changes over the next 10 years with job descriptions and roles. It suggests AI will make logical analysis and decisions, allowing the PM to focus their main area of responsibility on creativity, resolving conflicts, and innovation.

Lastly, with any transformation or disruption, one must consider the actions and obstacles—whether financial, management support, or workforce ability—to embrace and enact change. Here are some key considerations to reflect on:

1. Does your firm value project management?
2. Is your firm a quick adopter of intelligence-based project software?
3. Will your firm invest in your competence development?

Post your thoughts in the comments!

References

1. PMI: Project Management Competency Development Framework—Second Edition
2. PMI: Why do projects really fail?
3. HBR: How AI Will Transform Project Management
4. Gartner Says 80 Percent of Today’s Project Management Tasks Will Be Eliminated by 2030 as Artificial Intelligence Takes Over
5. IPAM: Will project managers soon be replaced by AI?
6. PWC: A Virtual Partnership? How Artificial Intelligence will disrupt Project Management and change the role of Project Managers
7. Proofhub: Top 10 Reasons Why Projects Fail (And How to Solve Them)