Guessing is not a strategy: How to build decision velocity with AI and real-time data
June 10, 2026 | Live Webinar
Do Modern PMs Rely on Charts Too Much?
| By Lynda Bourne
Ptolemy's world map (source: Wikipedia) Do modern project managers and their clients rely on their charts and reports too much? We all know that project schedules, cost reports, risk assessments and other reports are produced by sophisticated computer software, these days increasingly enhanced by artificial intelligence. But does this sophisticated processing mean the charts are completely reliable? The modern world is increasingly reliant on computer systems to direct and control many aspects of life—from self-driving cars, to autonomous warehouses, to the flight control systems in aircraft. But can this reliance on computer systems be translated to project controls information, or do we need a more ancient mindset? Modern navigators rely on the accuracy of their GPS to know exactly where they are and where they are going. The autopilots are better than the human, but the data being used is precise and validated. The same level of reliability and accuracy cannot be applied to project controls data. Every estimate is an assessment of what may occur in the future based on what happened in the past. Even when a sophisticated risk model is built, the P80 or P90 result is based on subjective range estimates taken from past events. The future may unfold within the expected parameters, and it may not. We simply cannot determine the future in advance. While the quality of the project predictions is based on the quality of the data being used in the modelling processes (and the only guaranteed fact is the model will be incorrect), predictions do not control the future. The key question is: How useful are the models in helping navigate the project through to a successful conclusion? [Remember GIGO (garbage in, garbage out)?!] In days gone by, navigators did not need accurate charts and satnav systems to reach their destinations. The Viking and Polynesian navigators crossed thousands of miles of open ocean to land on small islands using observations of the natural environment and tacit knowledge passed down from earlier generations. They knew certain seabird species only ventured relatively short distances from land, how clouds formed and changed over land, etc., augmented by primitive technologies. Fast-forward a few centuries, and the early European navigators (Columbus, Magellan, Drake, Cook and countless others) had steadily improving charts that made navigating easier—but they also knew the best charts available were not accurate. The general shape of the world had been mapped since the time of Ptolemy (circa 150 CE), and as better information became available, better maps and charts were created. But these are still continuing to be improved into the 21st century. So how did people navigate the globe without accurate maps and charts? I suggest there were four core elements in the approach, all of which can be applied to modern project management:
To move from assuming controls information is correct, to seeing it as a useful guide that can be improved as better knowledge becomes available, requires a paradigm shift in thinking that sits comfortably alongside many of the concepts of agile. The future is inherently uncertain and we can learn a lot from the way early navigators used imprecise charts to sail the oceans. Navigating the globe in past centuries and leading a project to a successful conclusion are both risky endeavours; this fact needs to be accepted, and the risks minimized by using the best available charts—while being aware of their limitations. What do you think? |
Do You Have the Courage to Break the Process?
Categories:
Agile
Categories: Agile
| By Soma Bhattacharya The entire purpose of creating a process is to ensure that the roadmap is followed. Everything is supposed to unfold as planned and predicted.
But following the status quo has always been a problem for me, because we should have the courage to break it when we know it can be done better. In most cases we don’t, because that’s how we are mentally wired. Why do we follow the regular path? Why do we never think of breaking the process? I recently read the book The Pathless Path: Imagining a New Story for Work and Life by Paul Millerd, and that led me to believe that there are people who are questioning the status quo (of course, the percentage is very low, but still there). Process in most organizations or teams is something that, once determined, is just part of the routine. Numbers and reports come up every month, but no one takes the time to actually look at and question them. When that’s the path we take, the meaning of every ceremony or sync-up or meeting gets lost. Now we just do them because we are supposed to. So, does the process really lead you anywhere? Self-discovery? Team bonding? Dynamic teamwork? Better thinking? If the answer is no, it’s time to change the process. Process for me triggers thinking. So instead of looking into the “tasks to get done” every day, do you want to replace it with something else? Maybe look at team deliverables with detailed data? When you run a team survey, do you want to include sensitive questions like, “Are you experiencing burnout?” And instead of pushing back the evitable, we try to create a system that allows everyone to develop insights into their own (and the team’s) performance. Here are some things to think about:
Agile is for everyone, not just for team leads and domain experts. When everyone participates, they feel included and acknowledged—and the process brings out the best. |
AI Disruption to Transform Project Success Rates
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By Peter Tarhanidis, Ph.D. One of the impacts artificial intelligence has had is prompting a reconstitution of project management. Here I look to leading industry experts to explore the benefits to project management systems due to matured AI software; and the maturity of the project manager as a data- and fact-driven champion of business outcomes and innovation. This combination of advanced project systems performance and leadership competence will significantly transform project success rates. As a background to the current state of project management, HBR states that $48 trillion is invested annually in projects. The Standish Group notes that only 35% of projects are successful, and 65% of projects waste resources and have unrealized benefits. Additionally, Proofhub attributes project failure to firms that lack project management delivery systems; they are prone to miss targets and overspend. It noted that 67% of projects fail because project management is undervalued; 44% of all managers do not believe in the importance of project management software; and 46% of firms place a high priority on project management. Also noted: Utilizing a good software program reduces failure by 10%, and scope creep by 17%. More specifically, a PMI Learning Library article noted some reasons for project failure:
Maturing Systems Gartner Inc. analysts predict that by 2030, AI software—driven by conversational AI, machine learning and robotic process automation for gathering data, reporting and tracking—will eliminate 80% of all project management office tasks. Gartner identifies project management disruption in six aspects:
PwC envisions AI-enabled project management software will improve a project leader’s decision-making process across the following five key areas crucial to success:
PwC posits the advancements in project management software are an opportunity for firms and leaders that are most ready to take advantage of this disruption and reap the rewards. PM Competence AI’s capability to assess disparate sources of big data to obtain actionable insights arms project managers with improved decision-making competence throughout the project lifecycle. However, a challenge noted by PwC’s recent analysis of OECD data (covering 200,000 jobs in 29 countries) warns that AI’s job displacement effect will automate 30% of jobs involving administrative manual tasks by the mid-2030s. This indicates a clear need to upskill project manager competence in order to thrive in the future. In order to succeed, a firm’s culture of adaptability and lifelong learning is a cornerstone for shifting today’s project management roles into the future. They will need to expand competence in soft skills, business and management skills, technical and digital skills—all working in concert with each other. IAPM states project managers will face fundamental changes over the next 10 years with job descriptions and roles. It suggests AI will make logical analysis and decisions, allowing the PM to focus their main area of responsibility on creativity, resolving conflicts, and innovation. Lastly, with any transformation or disruption, one must consider the actions and obstacles—whether financial, management support, or workforce ability—to embrace and enact change. Here are some key considerations to reflect on:
Post your thoughts in the comments! References
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Business Context or Business Acumen? PMs Need Both
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by Dave Wakeman I was scrolling ProjectManagement.com recently, looking for inspiration and ideas for this month’s piece when I saw one author pose a question about “business context” and another one post about “business acumen.” These got my attention, because over the years, my entire collection of posts has been about reinforcing these two points:
So this month, I want to reinforce the importance of your business skills to be a better project manager by highlighting two key ideas. 1. The best project manager can’t fix the wrong project. Peter Drucker said something about the worst waste of timing being doing something that need not be done at all. One of the key ways that you can use your business skills to improve your PM performance is by understanding what projects are really going to push your business toward its key strategic goals. This speaks directly to context. You get there with your business acumen. Why does this matter? First, a lot of projects end up taking place due to momentum. A project starts gaining steam, no one steps in to ask if it is “essential.” It just seems important. So, it gets done. Second, a lot of projects are done because that’s the way similar projects have been handled in the past. So, a project is just done because it is consistent with “best practices” even if there have been no lessons learned to update the process. These scenarios highlight the importance of context and business acumen for PMs, because being able to step in and understand if a project is essential and impactful can stop the wrong projects from taking place. 2. Context is key in any situation. The best project manager in the world is still operating in a situation filled with context, no matter what. The idea of any project, business or PM operating in a vacuum is funny, because nothing occurs in a vacuum. Great PMs know that context matters in every situation, and that context is fluid. Andy Jordan recently wrote about there being “multiple” contexts, and that is right to a point, but it can be confusing to people. A good PM’s frame of reference for “context” in their projects revolves around the answer to the question of, “What does success look like?” Why does this matter? One, we need to isolate the signal from the noise. I agree with Andy that there are multiple contexts for any project decision. Where I want you to focus your attention is on recognizing which one is most important. In the modern business environment, you are never going to be able to manage all the contexts, so the process of isolation and focus matter more than ever. So, look for the thing that is going to help you achieve “success,” whatever that means in your situation. Two, the proper context should help you justify your project’s execution. Above, we discussed business acumen and the “right project.” Here is where context helps that come true because the context can change—and likely will change. So, it is your job to make sure you know what success looks like so that you can place the project in the proper context to ensure that the right projects move forward. Remember, the best project manager in the world can’t save the wrong project—and that’s where the meeting of business acumen and business context come together. What do you think? Am I off the mark? |
5 Tips to Onboard New Team Members
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By Yasmina Khelifi, PMI-ACP, PMI-PBA, PMP A few years ago, I replaced a contractor who was an expert in his field. We met once a week, and he answered my questions. But the domain was new to me. He was an expert, and I was not—so I thought it was normal that I didn't understand it. He didn't write documents for me. So when he left, I spent difficult months catching up on things. Fortunately, I worked with a helpful technical expert. Then I wrote the necessary documents. We also developed a short training course. Since then, I have had to onboard colleagues, and I could use this documentation. I belong to many teams at work (and in the volunteering setting), and I’d like to share some thoughts on how this kind of transition can be better handled. Let's call Moa, your new team member. 1. Think of the needs of the newbie. When you onboard someone new, you first need to understand what they need. This is not about you; this is about Moa. You need to take into consideration some questions: a. Big picture vs. task only: Some people need to have the big picture to understand. Others need to understand only their sandbox. b. Learning methods: How does Moa learn and memorize?
c. Learning rhythm: What is Moa’s rhythm to learn? I am a bit impatient and need to know what is expected from me from the outset. If I don’t know it, I become anxious. Sometimes I get feedback like “Relax! You have time.” It doesn’t reassure me. On the contrary, it makes me nervous and a bit upset because by these words, I feel like people are not listening to my needs. d. Face-to-face meetings: If Moa is a remote team member, you’ll have to talk with his manager to plan a face-to-face meeting quickly after he joins. Perhaps a longer visit will be advantageous (and a great opportunity to gather the whole team together). 2. Define the best approach. Once you have had these first conversations, you can tailor an onboarding plan. Onboarding doesn’t stop the first week—it is a journey that can take several months and can take different forms:
3. Demystify languages. You will also be Moa’s “translator.” The language of your team includes:
These are the kinds of things you cannot get from training. Perhaps you have a glossary, or you can create one. 4. Uncover the unspoken rituals. When it comes to rituals, people often think of coffee breaks or after-work social gatherings. But rituals also encompass practical things about ways of working. Perhaps Moa is more interested in those items than the coffee breaks. You can anticipate answering the following questions:
5. Start early…and include everyone. With the overload at work and deadlines to catch up, your team member sometimes isn't in a hurry to train Moa. That doesn’t mean they don’t want to help him. But onboarding someone takes more time than expected. We all manage things without writing them down. Or a process is written, but after a while, we adapt it without updating the written process. Because of that, a 30-minute conversation can last longer than expected. Moa may ask many questions, like me. Welcoming a new member is not only the responsibility of the manager. It is even more important if Moa already works in the company. The onboarding process can start before with a handover period. Moa can begin to meet his colleagues and exchange with them. Onboarding new members is a key process in the life of a team. It is an opportunity to strengthen ties, and also a learning opportunity for everyone. What other things do you plan to onboard new team members?
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