Project Management

Statistical PERT® Beta Edition

By PMI South Florida Chapter

Format: Evaluation Assessment / Evaluation Form

UPDATED for 2023! Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) is a freely licensed, probabilistic, estimation technique. Use Statistical PERT to estimate uncertainties that have bell-shaped risk properties, like: task duration, work effort, revenue, expenses, agile story points, project portfolios, event attendance and more. Use in conjunction with the article Getting Beta with Statistical PERT.

Statistical PERT® Beta Edition uses Excel's two beta distribution functions, BETA.DIST and BETA.INV to model uncertainty.  To easily model mild-to-moderately skewed uncertainties, try Statistical PERT® Normal Edition, which uses Excel's two normal distribution functions NORMAL.DIST and NORMAL.INV.

Here's what's new in Version 3:

  • New Monte Carlo simulation worksheet simulates a single, random variable 10,000 times using the beta distribution, then charts the results using a dynamic histogram
  • New SPERT Scheduler worksheet allows for easy critical path analysis for plan-driven project schedules
  • Enhanced Agile Forecasting worksheet permits modeling three different scenarios simultaneously for easy what-if analysis
  • Enhanced formatting and other, minor improvements

Here's what's new in Version 2:

  • Tri-colored combo charts to show the beta distribution bell-curve
  • Tri-colored pie charts
  • Row-level Sparklines to see implied uncertainty of every row
  • A new Agile Forecast tab to make quick agile release date forecasts

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