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The following PMP® exam sample question is taken from http://www.free-pm-exam-questions.com - The answer is at the very bottom:
You are managing a construction project. You have just finished defining your activities and are now estimating their durations. Obtain government permits is one of your project activities that is very critical for the success of your project. You obtain expert opinion regarding time requirements for this activity and you have come to the conclusion that its most likely duration will be fifteen days. It will be very optimistic to obtain the permits in ten days. However keeping the current environmental factors into consideration, it may take up to thirty days to obtain the permits. What estimate should you take for this activity if you want to put more weight on the most likely duration with a ten percent contingency reserve? (Round to the nearest day)
A. 17 days
B. 18 days
C. 20 days
D. 33 days
Hint:
Use PERT formula to estimate your initial estimate.
Correct : B
Reference: PMBOK4 - pg:150
Explanation:
Since you want to put more weight on the most likely estimate, you should use the PERT formula for your initial estimate rather than taking a simple average of the three values. Your PERT estimate will be (10 + 4*15 + 30) / 6 = 16.67 days. Adding a ten percent contingency reserve to it will give 16.67*1.1 = 18.33 days. Rounding your estimate to the nearest day will give 18 days. Choice B is the correct answer to this question.
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Posted on: October 22, 2010 05:22 AM |
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