To hit pay dirt

When you think about your IT strategy, business strategy or if you think what could I propose for business, or maybe you are startup and you think what a new IT product would I create, you must know about modern trends and understand the world processes. That's why I'd like to propose for discuss my thoughts about the main trends in this year​.

Our world is always in motion. There are many different trends which you are interested. I think we can find some groups of these trends.

The first group is about world economy processes and trends, which is very important for international business development.

There are five main types of the world economy processes, for my opinion. We can see the result of them as the same products and the same shops, the same companies in the different countries.

The globalization is one of the main economy process in the world. Globalization is about the way of thinking and practice that is seen cutting across cultures and civilizations. It has changed the world picture especially in the half of the last century. World economic systems development doesn’t compromise the ability of national economies to meet or satisfy their own requirements [2]. But today we more think about global economy, global market, global issues, and this affect entire population of the world rather than in specific country.

Another one world economy process is internationalization. The internationalization theory pays attention to the border of the firm [3,4]. And in nowadays “location factors include not only “places” (the location in the city or region) but also “space”…” [3]. Internalization is taking one country’s business across the world. Internalization is also about selling your product all over the world. Therefore, internalization retains one country's identity.

The third world economy process is transnationalization, which mean transnational corporation activities. In this process there are increases transfers of capital, labor and other resources.

The forth world economy process is regionalization, which mean dividing an area into smaller segments called regions. Of course, this process influences on the businesses, changing the conditions for functioning in the global political and economic system.

And the last world economy process is regional/international economic integration in the world economy. The most general term by this process is the “complex process of cooptation and diffusion of national economies of various counties, aiming to create a unified economic organism” [5]. It refers to the different regions and/or countries unions.

So, in all these processes we have such trends as a multi-culture aspects of social and economic development, peaceful co-operation, continuing opening of the societies and economies [1] on one side.

And from another side we can see following forecasts:

• The global recovery will continue:
  • the most obvious risks to keep in eye on will be in Europe [6,8];
  • the effect on US growth is estimated to be positive trough 2020, cumulating to 1.2 percent trough this year [7,8];
  • China and Japan will grow slow, and could return to growth trends in the past [8];
  • The India grows gradually from 6.4% in 2017 to 8.3% in 2019 [8];
•  Oxford Economic forecasts that global trade will grow by 4.8% in 2017, the fastest rate since 2011, and remain above 3.5% from 2018 trough 2020 [9];
•   Equity markets should continue to enjoy the momentum of improving fundamentals for the next two years [9];
• Cheaper financing in major emerging markets such as Russia, Mexico and Brazil [9];
• Gold could be as a strategic investment: it has been a source of return for investors portfolios; it's correlation to major asset classes has been low in both expansionary and recessionary periods; it is a mainstream asset that is liquid as other financial securities; it has historically improved portfolio risk-adjusted returns [10];

Criptocurrencies value will continues to grow and more people will invest, 2018 could be the year of regulation for blockchain and Criptocurrencies [11].

The second group is about technologies, which grow up so rapidly.

Some trends refer with blockchain and criptocurrency. So, Internet of things (IoT) may become Blockchain internet of things (BIoT), proposing new services and creating new businesses. Also financial technologies would become greener, and people will get the quantum computer, which will work at a billion times faster than today’s microprocessors [12].

 Another one technological trend is about augmented reality (AR). AR goes mainstream. The one of the real promise from AR is to bring people information they need without having to ask for it.

Of course, this year is the year of bots, which will be able to provide timely information (for example, about medicine), to help with children, in financial investments and etc [12].

We will see continuing digital centralization, artificial intelligence (AI) permeation, date overload, including reduced privacy, and possible a new generation of internet [13].

Marketing will continue become increasingly personal, based on the people behavior, psychology, feelings, emotions.

Patent analysis can give full picture about technology trends.

The third group of trends is about people, how changes people’s mind and behavior in our world.

The first trend is about changing of people, and the focus is less about Millenials, and more about their cohorts in Generation Z [14]. But, for my opinion, we have also to keep in mind oldest people because they are active, have possibilities by health for work, and many of them want to work, and have a large useful experience and knowledges.

The second trend is about increasing role by social networks and p2p platforms.

Among the people, the interest to a cybersport is waiting to increase.

One of the trend concern to project managers. Project managers will become more product managers, they will be experts who take on a leadership role within the business, fostering a culture and collaboration and trust with stakeholders [14]. I think it also mean increase their leadership role in the project.

I was part of the situations when customer had taken approval for the contract only after his meeting with the project manager, because he had need not only the project leader, but the expert too. 

In conclusion, I’d like to remind phrase from one of my favorite movies “The Devil wears Prada”: «Oh. I see. You think this has nothing to do with you…and you select, I don’t know, that lumpy blue sweater, for instance because you’re trying to tell the world you take yourself too seriously to care about what you put on, but what you don’t know is that sweater is not just blue. It’s not turquoise. It’s not lapis. It’s actually cerulean. And you’re also blithely unaware of the fact that in 2002, Oscar de la Renta did a collection of cerulean gowns and then it was Yves Saint Laurent who showed cerulean military jackets. Then cerulean quickly showed up in the collections of eight different designers. And then it filtered down through the department store, and then trickled on down into some tragic Casual Corner where you, no doubt, fished it out of some clearance bin. However, that blue represents millions of dollars and countless jobs. And it’s sort of comical how you think that you’ve made a choice, that exempts you from the fashion industry when, in fact, you’re wearing a sweater that was selected for you by the people in this room from a pile of “stuff”».

I think these words fully reflect the process how the trends born and they become part of our life even if we do not think about them.

I’d like to know your opinion about necessaries to know trends in the project/product development and successful requirements gathering. Which trends on your opinion we must know?

References:

1. Grzegorz W. Kolodko Whither the World: The Political Economy of the Future,   http://bea-bd.org/site/images/pdf/paperk.pdf  
2. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18568/1/MPRA_paper_18568.pdf
3. Buckley P. Forty years of internationalization theory and the multinational enterprise / P. Buckley // Multinational Business Review. 2014. 22 (3), p. 227 – 245
4. Buckley P. The internationalization theory of the multinational enterprise of the progress of a research agenda after 30 years / P. Buckley, M. Casson // Journal of International Business Studies. 2009. 40 (9), p. 1563 – 1580
5. International integration and national development / Edited by A. Tatarkin. Yekaterinburg: Publishing house of Economics Insitute, 2009,
6. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/what-to-expect-for-the-global-economy-in-2018
7. https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2018/Update/January/0118.ashx
8. http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/macroeconomic-insights-folder/2018-global-economic-outlook-as-good-as-it-gets/report.pdf
9. https://www.bakermckenzie.com/-/media/files/insight/publications/gtf/global_transactions_forecast_2018.pdf
10. Outlook 2018 | Global economic trends and their impact on gold by World Gold Council
11. https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/914087/cryptocurrency-predictions-2018-bitcoin-news-blockchain-ethereum-ripple
12. http://fortune.com/2017/12/26/4-technology-trends-2018/
13. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysondemers/2017/12/30/7-technology-trends-that-will-dominate-2018/#79b6ba3957d7
14. https://www.changepoint.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/2018-PMO-Predictions.pdf

We know that IT system development is not only about the offer of automation services based on the requirements of the customer or consumers, but it’s about development business strategy, about business development.

For example, you have a shop, and when you created a web-site you have received a new market. If you are working in an international company which work with delivery shipments and you have created new technology about exchanges of shipment dates for your client, a big international company, you get a new market too, your business had gone to the next level because of the new technology. The new technology may give you possibility for work faster, with high quality and with new clients. And all of these examples about development both strategies: IT Strategy and Business strategy.

So, we need successful business analysis, including requirements gathering for this process as one of the main it part.

In the Business Analysis for Practitioners: A Practice Guide by PMI [1] the term Business Analysis is defined as “the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to:

• Determine problems and identify business needs; 
• Identify and recommend viable solutions for meeting those needs; 
• Elicit, document, and manage stakeholder requirements in order to meet business and project objectives; 
• Facilitate the successful implementation of the product, service, or end result of the program or project.”   

All of you know how many projects have fails, and these failures being attributed to requirements gathering, it’s almost 70% of all project failures [2].

How could we realize the right Business Analysis (or discovered requirements) and get the set of the right requirements?

It’s very important to see in the right direction (Figure). For determine problems and identify business needs we have to see around us, to find obvious things, and we have to use some set of rules.

Figure – Discover requirements

For my opinion, there are three most important set of rules.

The first set is about right questions when you try to discover problems and formulate requirements [1]. It is like a 5W1H (Five Ws and One How) method. Answers on these questions are considered basic in information gathering.  Therefore, in the business analysis we have also five Why. Here are some typical questions with why:

1. Why is it the problem?
2. Why is this situation happen?
3. Why do you have this process?
4. Why any alternatives are not work?
5. Why the solution of this problem is so important?

In addition, of course, you have to remember to choose the right person as an interviewee.

The second set is about requirements management [3]:

1. Planning how we could get the right requirements. Plan must include questions, on which you try to find answers (first set of rules), methods and instruments for work with them, list of sources, time, responsibilities, plan for integration, plan for quality assurance.
2. Team work (Collaboration&Buy-In). All team member must be in the loop. You need gathering and work with all ideas no matter how crazy they can be. And you try to get support the decision from all team members. 
3. Integration Management (work with changes). It's very important when you continue working, making changes and go-back iterations. It makes your result much better and clarify requirements.
4. Quality Management (quality assurance). When you have a mistake in the requierements, it will be  cost up to 100 times in the future than it is to correct a defect early on while a requirement.

And the third set is about result analysis [4]:

1. Be sceptic and always ask questions with “Why”.
2. I mean especially very useful in the result analysis the McKinsey technic called MECE (mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive). When you think in this way, you can find your gaps in the requirements and you can prevent duplicates too.
3. Working with hypothesis: define, generate and test them.

In conclusion, to formulate the right requirements is a very complexity task, and there are a lot of information about different methods and tools. Above rules could be fundament in your requirements gathering.

References:

1. Business Analysis for Practitioners: A Practice Guide, Project Management Institute, 2015, p.  
2. Beginning at the End – Requirements Gathering Lessons from a Flowchart Junkie Cari Stieglitz, PMP, Project Manager, Faithful+Gould, Originally published as a part of the 2012 PMI Global Congress Proceedings – Vancouver, Canada
3. Requirements Management 101 four fundamentals that everyone should know. Jama.Inc, www.jamasoftware.com | 1.800.679.3058
4. Ethan M. Rasiel The McKinsy Way, Copyright 1999 Ethan M. Rasiel. Click here for Terms of Use, 188 p. 

Some of you know how hard could be to fix up with customer (especially in a large company) a lot of documents when they are part of your procurement. 

You have to correct them again and again...to have discuss them with a lot of people, which can have some different opinions about the same things, which can have some different interests. 

But how could you make this process working quickly?

I have developed a habit over the years of working in consulting to do the following things:

1. To form a working group of experts, decision-makers in the case of a large project we need to establish several working groups.
2. For each direction must be the person responsible for the direction and possessing powers of decision-making in contentious situations.
3. Prepare the first edition of documents, and send them to the customer for given feedback.
4. Give feedback from all of people which take part in the fix up.
5. Write records of all observations in the table, record the answers to all remarks and add comments, especially if you don't agree with observation.
6. Change documents and send them again to the customer.
7. Organize meeting and discuss the documents, try to make the positive decision. 
8. If the positive decision didn't find on meeting, you have to distinguish controversial aspects with description their solution ways.
9. All final decisions must be agreed by the management Committee of this project and approved by the responsible for the project from the customer.

This is easily done when you have professionals in the field of project management, project office, and very difficult when they are not.

But some organizations don't follow project management processes, and they don't have project management professionals, techniques. And what can we see?

I was convinced on own experience, doing projects for two different large organizations. In one of them the specialists have been trained in project management according to PMBOK, the other heard nothing about it. In the first case, it was not difficult to organize the work properly and perform it easily. In the second case, it took some time on the organization of work on the project from the customer, as it was necessary to actually teach the ideology of project management and operation, as well as to overcome resistance and reluctance to change work style. But and one, and in another case, in the end, the process of working on documents was reduced to the mentioned steps.

I'll be glad to get your feedback.

Thank you for reading this.

Success to all of you. 

Yesterday, passed away the Russian writer, Daniil Granin (1919-2017), who had written, for my oppinion, the fundamental book in the Russian time management "This strange life".

This book tells us about the Alexander Lubishchev, Soviet scientist. Alexander Lubishchev devoted his life to science, including the study of using time. Alexander Lyubischev had made a monitoring and accounting time during of all his life. It had allowed him to achieve greater productivity of his activities in various fields of philosophy, biology, and entomology.

Thanks to the book of Daniil Granin method of using time-keeping has been widespread, and nowadays many of the developing and implementing time management systems use it as their basis.

My personal experience of how to improve the own efficiency with timing, I had described in my blog (https://www.projectmanagement.com/blog-post/24731/-Its-a-magic-time---).

The rules of timekeeping in the company will help you to evaluate the work activities. It will also increase productivity, as well as the possibility of introducing an incentives and rewards system.

However, you should be careful with using these tools because people usually do not like when they don’t feel free.  That is why the most effective will be the introduction of timing as a work culture, and as a means for all employees to benefit from it.

If anyone had not read this book, I highly recommend to read.

https://www.litmir.me/br/?b=226757&p=1

If you need a translation, write about it in comments, I could post book here in parts.

Have you ever worked with a nervous head? How did you feel in this situation? Don't you think that such manager behavior has a negative effect to work?

One day I was in a very difficult situation. There was a difficult project, too little time, a lot of reporting.

Last day of the deadline. Hard work. Everyone is tired. All was ready except some acts and the boot modules. We need to write code on some disk units, and at this moment the program fail has gone. Programmers are ready to quit. I don't know how to correct a mistake in the program settings and restore the system. I just support them calm down, discuss and work together to find a solution, and they are in the beginning reluctantly, and then, infected by the desire to deliver work on time, be inspired, work boils, and finally, they report that all done! I see the joy on their faces. It was very pleasant. But a lawyer has been lost all nerves, she could not prepare the last act, I sent her to lunch, and after lunch, helped her, and she did it very quickly. The analyst, who performed the last important and urgent task, had mistaken, so he did not finish his work. I had to be with him and guide him, I saw he calms down and does everything precisely and accurately. We finished our work completed in time.

And what I noticed, my composure and attitude on the result helped us. It was an incredible example of the power of composure. As you know, there are a lot of different researches about linking leaders and team performance. Some of them showed that relationship between leader behavior and team performance is indirect [1]. But I saw in my experience very direct linking. And I have to say that a leader must have great composure. It is one of the keys to successful team performance.

There is also another opinion that composure is one of the qualities of exceptional people [2]. So, we need to remember about it and improve yourself.

 I'll be glad to get your feedback.

Thank you for reading this.

Success to all of you.   

References:

1. http://www.sbuweb.tcu.edu/mscole/docs/Cole%20et%20al.%20(2011).%20Linking%20Leadership%20Behavior%20and%20Consensus%20to%20Team%20Perf_LQ.pdf
2. https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/246347