The Professional Project Manager

Survivorship bias is a logical error that focuses on the survivors of a particular process, while overlooking those that didn’t make it. In the context of project management, this can lead to misguided conclusions about what it truly takes for a project to succeed.

The term "survivorship bias" originates from wartime observations when aviation experts examined planes that returned from battle in WWII to identify where they had taken the most damage. They mapped where all the damage was found and then with this information they considered reinforcing these areas to make the planes more resilient. However, a statistician named Abraham Wald pointed out a flaw in this approach. The planes they were examining had survived, despite their obvious damage. It was the planes that didn't return—those hit in other critical areas—that needed to be studied. By only looking at the survivors, they were missing vital data on the planes' vulnerabilities and in fact had they gone ahead they would’ve reinforced areas of the planes that didn’t need reinforcing, and not reinforced areas that did.

How does this relate to project management?

Imagine you want to discover the secret to successful project management (and who doesn’t?). You might be tempted to analyse only successful projects and identify common factors in them (like mapping damage to aircraft that made it back). You then describe successful project management according to these traits of these particular projects and focus your training on these processes, tools, techniques or competencies. On the surface, this seems logical right?

But here's the catch: by only looking at successes, you're missing out on a vast amount of data from projects that failed (the planes that didn’t return, and the reasons they didn’t return). These failures can offer crucial insights into pitfalls and challenges that successful projects either avoided or overcame (sometimes by dumb luck!).

Fortunately for us the world of project management is littered with failures. In fact, it could be argued that the ‘norm’ in project management is failure – after all, most projects are somewhat unique, and subject to a myriad of constraints and risks. I’ve never shocked at those oft repeated statistics that 60-70% of projects fail, often used by people to ask what is the point of professional project management when this figure hasn’t changed over 10 or 20 years. I always think that the number is a constant because that’s just what projects are – failure magnets – and yes, that’s a topic for another post but chime in on this if you want.

Success is not just a product of hard work, planning, and strategy. Sometimes, it's also about being in the right place at the right time – plain old dumb luck. Recognizing the role of luck in project success is essential. Also, don’t discount the role of external factors beyond the control of the project manager. Two projects could be managed similarly, but external factors, timing, or sheer coincidence could lead one to thrive and the other to flounder.

For instance, a company might initiate a project to launch a product just when there's a sudden surge in demand due to unforeseen circumstances, making the project seem brilliantly managed and executed. Another similar project might face unexpected competition or market changes. Is it fair to label one as superior management and the other as lacking, without considering the impact of luck, coincidence, or external factors?

And that’s why it’s important to analyse and learn from success AND failure. So yes, I’m saying celebrate failure as a learning opportunity. I’m not saying throw a party, give bonus’s and promotions, and advertise to your clients how wonderful you are at project failure. I’m saying, treat them as real opportunities to learn something that will help you be more successful in the future.

So don’t fall into the trap of survivorship bias. We all want to be more successful at delivering projects but to truly understand project management the factors that contribute to project success, we have to consider both the winners and the losers. So, maybe at your next monthly community of practice meeting, or your next post implementation review, or your next portfolio planning session, take time to have someone present about failures and what they learned from them. Do this without judgment, compare it to what you learn from successes, and you are probably on your way to discovering what makes your projects successful (oh, and please take time to really define project success and how you will measure it – again, that’s a topic for another blog, but chime in on this if you want).

In today's rapidly evolving business landscape, organizational success is not just about meeting targets—it's about excelling in project, program, and portfolio management (P3M). A comprehensive understanding of your organization’s P3M maturity can be a game-changer. This is where a Portfolio, Programme, and Project Management Maturity Model (P3M3^®) assessment becomes invaluable. I have personally seen (and assisted) organisations go from low performing to high performing by completing a P3M3^® assessment and following the prioritized improvement recommendations that are central to it.

The Transformative Impact of P3M3^® Assessments

A P3M3^® assessment provides a structured framework to understand, evaluate, and enhance your organization's project management capabilities. The insights gained from this assessment are pivotal in:

1. Identifying Improvement Areas: Uncover hidden inefficiencies and areas needing refinement in your organization's project management processes.
2. Focussing on Existing Strengths: The assessment is not a punitive exercise but instead seeks to uncover what is working well and make sure you do more of this.
3. Enhancing Decision-Making: Equip your leadership with the data they need to make informed decisions, elevating the effectiveness of governance and resource allocation.
4. Boosting Project Success Rates: Ultimately, the purpose of the P3M3^® assessment is to improve the predictability and performance of your projects, leading to more consistent success (however you define it) and assisting your organisation achieve its strategic goals.

Why Opt for a Virtual P3M3^® Assessment?

In the digital age, virtual assessments have proven to be not only feasible but highly efficient. Conducting a P3M3^® assessment virtually offers several compelling advantages:

• Flexibility and Convenience: Adjust the assessment schedule to suit your organization's busy calendar, without the need for physical meetings. The data and evidence reviews, the workshops and interviews, and presentations involved in the assessment can be completed virtually so you can engage a certified P3M3^® Assessor from anywhere in the world.
• Cost-Effectiveness: The virtual option also saves on travel and accommodation expenses typically associated with in-person assessments.
• Rapid Implementation: By choosing a virtual option you get quicker assessment kick-off, setup and completion which mean faster access to valuable insights.

Achieving a high level of P3M maturity is a testament to an organization’s commitment to excellence. It’s a badge of honor, showcasing a culture that values continuous improvement and professional growth. By engaging in a P3M3^® assessment, you’re not just contributing to the success of your projects; you're uplifting the entire organization. This commitment reflects your dedication to excellence, a quality that resonates across all levels of the organization.

While the idea of conducting a P3M3^® assessment is appealing, the expertise required to do so effectively is crucial. Seeking a certified, authorised, knowledgeable and experienced professional to guide you through the process can make a significant difference. AXELOS makes a great deal of effort to ensure only the best organisations can become an AXELOS Consulting partner (ACP), and only people trained and certified can be a Certified P3M3^® Assessor. An expert with a nuanced understanding of virtual assessments can tailor the process to your organization's unique needs, ensuring that the results are both relevant and actionable.

In considering your options for a P3M3^® assessment facilitator, it's beneficial to select someone who is not just a certified and authorised assessor, but someone with a broad range of experience so that the prioritized recommendations they provide for improvement are based on what actually works and not just theory. An individual who combines profound knowledge with a flexible, virtual-first approach can provide a seamless and effective assessment experience.

Embarking on a P3M3^® assessment journey is a strategic step towards organizational maturity and success. By opting for a virtual assessment, you embrace innovation and efficiency, positioning your organization to thrive in a competitive business environment. Remember, the right expertise can turn this journey into a transformative experience, paving the way for sustained excellence and pride in your organizational achievements.

Find out more about the P3M3^® assessment at https://www.axelos.com/for-organizations/p3m3

And let me know if you have any questions, always happy to chat.

Sean Whitaker

[email protected]

And yes, in terms of full disclosure I am a certified P3M3 assessor and my company is a Authorized Consulting Partner (ACP) but this isn't a pitch for work. Its a genuine piece of advice to help you and your organisation improve your portfolio, programme, and project management quickly with a proven, effective, and cost efficient method for doing so.

As a consultant who works with organizations around the globe, I get to see many forms of a PMO and I get to see what works and what doesn’t.  A well thought out and value adding PMO can add measurable strategic and operational value to any organisation regardless of its size or maturity. Getting the right PMO for your organization can be a challenge and I want to share with you some thoughts and observations on what exactly a PMO can be. Hopefully from these thoughts you can take some tips on what your PMO should be.

Let’s start with what do the letters “PMO” stand for? Well the “P” can stand for Portfolio, Programme or Project. The “M” and the “O” generally stand for Management Office. You can add an “E”, for Enterprise, in the front to get an EPMO to indicate it stretches across the entire organization. You can have individual PMO’s that answer into an EPMO. It can even not be called a PMO at all, and there are many other names it can go by. You can call it what you want as long as the name is an accurate representation of what the function actually does.

Answering the question about what a PMO can be takes a bit more time. It is not a single standard format you can apply to your organization which makes it a little hard to define appropriately. The easiest why I have found to describe, at a high level, what a PMO is, is that it should be the center of excellence, whatever that means, for professional project management in your organisation to support the current and future portfolio, program and project management aspirations of the organisation. That is a long winded way of saying that your PMO should support what you currently do but also take you into the future and a better, more mature state.

At one end of the spectrum I have seen a very low maturity organization have a ‘PMO’ that was as small as a few ring binders with templates in it that were regularly updated. At the other end of the spectrum I have worked with large and complex PMO’s which can be a fully separate and resourced unit that does full portfolio management, strategic alignment, governance, project selection & reporting, and also employs, deploys, & trains all the project management personnel. Somewhere between these two extremes is the PMO that is right for you and your organization.

Here is a list of functions that a PMO might consider:

• Governance and sponsorship
• Developing standards, methodologies, processes, tools and templates
• Maturity improvement
• Strategic alignment
• Project selection
• Full control and reporting of all initiatives
• Assurance
• Benefits management at all levels and at all stages
• Programme management
• Allocation of project management resources
• Recruitment of project managers
• Training and development of project managers

What have I missed?

These are the types of things to consider when thinking about introducing or upgrading a PMO:

1. Maturity of your organization – a low maturity organization may want a PMO that helps it increase in maturity in specific ways, while a high maturity organization will want a PMO that supports and maintains its high level of maturity.
2. Size of your organization – larger organizations generally need a larger and better resourced PMO
3. Complexity of the work that you do – the more complex the work that you do the more complex the PMO will need to be to support your efforts
4. C-Level understanding and support – without full support from senior and executive management your PMO will never be considered a full-time part of the organisation.

Unfortunately, the research tells us that there are many threats to a PMO and its success. These include the following:

1. Making a PMO a bureaucracy
2. Not proving the value a PMO brings to the organization. The PMO, whatever its form and name, must deliver real value to the organisation, and not be afraid to tell everyone how good they are. I’ve seen great PMO’s fail because they kept their success to themselves
3. Lack of senior management support
4. Tough financial times – it seems that when finances get tight for an organization the first thing to go is the PMO
5. Trying to be everything to everyone – focus on what you do well, and just do that
6. Being under resourced and overworked and letting everyone down
7. Looking backwards at what you have accomplished and not looking forward to the value you have yet to create
8. Assuming a PMO is static – a PMO should change with the organisations needs. If your PMO is the same as it was 2 years its probably out of date.

Just a reminder, this is just a high level introduction to the PMO. There has been plenty of research done on the topic and if you are academically minded you can easily find some serous pieces of research out there on the topic. There are also many people more on projectmanagement.com who I know would love to share their experiences, both bad and good. So don’t be afraid to reach out and find out as much as you can before deciding on what sort of PMO is right for you.

Here are my rapid fire suggestions for some of the most common issues a project manager will face:

Poor planning and estimating – Start with a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and then involve those people who are actually going to do the work

Poor change control – document everything

Poor scope definition – only do what is fully defined

Poor communication – try and see through the others person eyes

Demanding customer – listen better, document everything

Stalled career – invest in training or experience for yourself

Surprises keep slowing down the project – take time to do a risk register

Lack of clarity about who does what – get everyone to contribute to and agree on a RACI chart

No time for project closure – include it in the project scope of works and allocate time and cost to it

Poor team morale – karaoke evening 😊

I am really interested to know your answers to these three questions about project management:

1. What one tip would you give to a new project manager?

2. What is the single largest contributing factor to project success?

3. What is the single largest contributing factor to project failure?