The Professional Project Manager

Survivorship bias is a logical error that focuses on the survivors of a particular process, while overlooking those that didn’t make it. In the context of project management, this can lead to misguided conclusions about what it truly takes for a project to succeed.

The term "survivorship bias" originates from wartime observations when aviation experts examined planes that returned from battle in WWII to identify where they had taken the most damage. They mapped where all the damage was found and then with this information they considered reinforcing these areas to make the planes more resilient. However, a statistician named Abraham Wald pointed out a flaw in this approach. The planes they were examining had survived, despite their obvious damage. It was the planes that didn't return—those hit in other critical areas—that needed to be studied. By only looking at the survivors, they were missing vital data on the planes' vulnerabilities and in fact had they gone ahead they would’ve reinforced areas of the planes that didn’t need reinforcing, and not reinforced areas that did.

How does this relate to project management?

Imagine you want to discover the secret to successful project management (and who doesn’t?). You might be tempted to analyse only successful projects and identify common factors in them (like mapping damage to aircraft that made it back). You then describe successful project management according to these traits of these particular projects and focus your training on these processes, tools, techniques or competencies. On the surface, this seems logical right?

But here's the catch: by only looking at successes, you're missing out on a vast amount of data from projects that failed (the planes that didn’t return, and the reasons they didn’t return). These failures can offer crucial insights into pitfalls and challenges that successful projects either avoided or overcame (sometimes by dumb luck!).

Fortunately for us the world of project management is littered with failures. In fact, it could be argued that the ‘norm’ in project management is failure – after all, most projects are somewhat unique, and subject to a myriad of constraints and risks. I’ve never shocked at those oft repeated statistics that 60-70% of projects fail, often used by people to ask what is the point of professional project management when this figure hasn’t changed over 10 or 20 years. I always think that the number is a constant because that’s just what projects are – failure magnets – and yes, that’s a topic for another post but chime in on this if you want.

Success is not just a product of hard work, planning, and strategy. Sometimes, it's also about being in the right place at the right time – plain old dumb luck. Recognizing the role of luck in project success is essential. Also, don’t discount the role of external factors beyond the control of the project manager. Two projects could be managed similarly, but external factors, timing, or sheer coincidence could lead one to thrive and the other to flounder.

For instance, a company might initiate a project to launch a product just when there's a sudden surge in demand due to unforeseen circumstances, making the project seem brilliantly managed and executed. Another similar project might face unexpected competition or market changes. Is it fair to label one as superior management and the other as lacking, without considering the impact of luck, coincidence, or external factors?

And that’s why it’s important to analyse and learn from success AND failure. So yes, I’m saying celebrate failure as a learning opportunity. I’m not saying throw a party, give bonus’s and promotions, and advertise to your clients how wonderful you are at project failure. I’m saying, treat them as real opportunities to learn something that will help you be more successful in the future.

So don’t fall into the trap of survivorship bias. We all want to be more successful at delivering projects but to truly understand project management the factors that contribute to project success, we have to consider both the winners and the losers. So, maybe at your next monthly community of practice meeting, or your next post implementation review, or your next portfolio planning session, take time to have someone present about failures and what they learned from them. Do this without judgment, compare it to what you learn from successes, and you are probably on your way to discovering what makes your projects successful (oh, and please take time to really define project success and how you will measure it – again, that’s a topic for another blog, but chime in on this if you want).

There is something weird (and unique) about the profession of project management and its view of credentials.

Often on LinkedIn you will see an opinion or post expressing doubt about the usefulness of credentials and qualifications, and quite loudly proclaiming that experience is the only thing that matters.

What’s weird is that I’ve never seen the same attitude from accountants, engineers, dentists, lawyers, plumbers, or builders. Those professions take it for granted that experience is best, but should be built on credentials and qualifications.

When I’m looking to recruit or appoint a project manager I always look at their experience AND their credentials/qualifications. Their credentials tell me a lot about their breadth of knowledge and can sometimes indicate levels of competence (and also their commitment to professional development).

The answer is, and always has been, that a project manager needs both experience AND credentials just like any other profession or trade. You wouldn’t use (or trust) an accountant or engineer that said their experience was all that mattered and they didn’t need credentials. Heck, you wouldn’t employ a plumber who said the same.

And for all those project managers out there without credentials and qualifications wondering if I’m dismissing your years of experience, I’m not because experience rules. But, generally speaking, you would be better project manager with some credentials and qualifications.

Now in terms of what credentials are best, well that depends on the type and complexity of your projects, the industry you are in, and obviously the credential itself - they aren’t all created equal. For me, anything that comes from a reputable professional organisation (PMI, IPMA, or APM) means the credential has been through a rigourous process in development, and also aligns with internal and external standards (eg ISO17024). Any tertiary level qualification (e.g Bachelors, Masters, or PhD in project management) from a reputable university is also a good one as I know there was academic teaching and assessment. When it comes to the commercial methodology credentials (eg Prince2, Scrum) they’re great as an indicator someone can attend a 3-5 training course and has at a minimum knowledge of a particular approach (I would have to learn more about their experience to know how well they can apply it).

So, you should always value experience without a doubt. But you need to place equal value on credentials and qualifications (and become familiar with what each one represents).

And yes, it is long overdue that the profession of project management actually becomes a regulated profession with definitions of who can call themselves a project manager. If we are entrusting complex initiatives into the hands of people and hoping for successful delivery then it’s about time we defined the expectations in terms of experience and credentials that we have of those people.

In today's rapidly evolving business landscape, organizational success is not just about meeting targets—it's about excelling in project, program, and portfolio management (P3M). A comprehensive understanding of your organization’s P3M maturity can be a game-changer. This is where a Portfolio, Programme, and Project Management Maturity Model (P3M3^®) assessment becomes invaluable. I have personally seen (and assisted) organisations go from low performing to high performing by completing a P3M3^® assessment and following the prioritized improvement recommendations that are central to it.

The Transformative Impact of P3M3^® Assessments

A P3M3^® assessment provides a structured framework to understand, evaluate, and enhance your organization's project management capabilities. The insights gained from this assessment are pivotal in:

1. Identifying Improvement Areas: Uncover hidden inefficiencies and areas needing refinement in your organization's project management processes.
2. Focussing on Existing Strengths: The assessment is not a punitive exercise but instead seeks to uncover what is working well and make sure you do more of this.
3. Enhancing Decision-Making: Equip your leadership with the data they need to make informed decisions, elevating the effectiveness of governance and resource allocation.
4. Boosting Project Success Rates: Ultimately, the purpose of the P3M3^® assessment is to improve the predictability and performance of your projects, leading to more consistent success (however you define it) and assisting your organisation achieve its strategic goals.

Why Opt for a Virtual P3M3^® Assessment?

In the digital age, virtual assessments have proven to be not only feasible but highly efficient. Conducting a P3M3^® assessment virtually offers several compelling advantages:

• Flexibility and Convenience: Adjust the assessment schedule to suit your organization's busy calendar, without the need for physical meetings. The data and evidence reviews, the workshops and interviews, and presentations involved in the assessment can be completed virtually so you can engage a certified P3M3^® Assessor from anywhere in the world.
• Cost-Effectiveness: The virtual option also saves on travel and accommodation expenses typically associated with in-person assessments.
• Rapid Implementation: By choosing a virtual option you get quicker assessment kick-off, setup and completion which mean faster access to valuable insights.

Achieving a high level of P3M maturity is a testament to an organization’s commitment to excellence. It’s a badge of honor, showcasing a culture that values continuous improvement and professional growth. By engaging in a P3M3^® assessment, you’re not just contributing to the success of your projects; you're uplifting the entire organization. This commitment reflects your dedication to excellence, a quality that resonates across all levels of the organization.

While the idea of conducting a P3M3^® assessment is appealing, the expertise required to do so effectively is crucial. Seeking a certified, authorised, knowledgeable and experienced professional to guide you through the process can make a significant difference. AXELOS makes a great deal of effort to ensure only the best organisations can become an AXELOS Consulting partner (ACP), and only people trained and certified can be a Certified P3M3^® Assessor. An expert with a nuanced understanding of virtual assessments can tailor the process to your organization's unique needs, ensuring that the results are both relevant and actionable.

In considering your options for a P3M3^® assessment facilitator, it's beneficial to select someone who is not just a certified and authorised assessor, but someone with a broad range of experience so that the prioritized recommendations they provide for improvement are based on what actually works and not just theory. An individual who combines profound knowledge with a flexible, virtual-first approach can provide a seamless and effective assessment experience.

Embarking on a P3M3^® assessment journey is a strategic step towards organizational maturity and success. By opting for a virtual assessment, you embrace innovation and efficiency, positioning your organization to thrive in a competitive business environment. Remember, the right expertise can turn this journey into a transformative experience, paving the way for sustained excellence and pride in your organizational achievements.

Find out more about the P3M3^® assessment at https://www.axelos.com/for-organizations/p3m3

And let me know if you have any questions, always happy to chat.

Sean Whitaker

[email protected]

And yes, in terms of full disclosure I am a certified P3M3 assessor and my company is a Authorized Consulting Partner (ACP) but this isn't a pitch for work. Its a genuine piece of advice to help you and your organisation improve your portfolio, programme, and project management quickly with a proven, effective, and cost efficient method for doing so.

Professional training is an important investment made by organisations to enhance their staff's level of competence and ultimately performance. But like all investments, it requires careful planning, clear objectives, and robust assessment processes to ensure it works and achieve its goals – otherwise it’s just an exercise in attendance.

It helps if you start to look at investing in training as you would any other investment you could make. This means that you take a look at the costs of the investment and clearly outline the expected returns from it. This is useful to help you even choose the type of training that you should be sending people on. You should have a really clear idea of what sort of training you want people to go on for example will it be assessed or is it simply a matter of attending a course. Will it require practical demonstration of skills, will it result in a professional certification or qualification. Each of these provides different levels of training and teaching and as such different levels of competence development. So carefully consider the business case for each investment in training and have clear expectations about what you need the

Next, when looking at different types of training look carefully about how the training has been put together. Is it a simple mishmash of opinions of a particular subject matter expert or has it been put together using something like blooms taxonomy which will clearly indicate what the level of teaching or training is aimed at and what the expected outcomes from participating and completing in the training will be. This is definitely a question that you should be asking any training provider so that you can move away from training that does not have defined learning outcomes.

Once people have been on the training and completed it you then need a way to determine whether it was worthwhile and whether you achieved the expected results from it. I'm always surprised at this point that a lot of people simply assume that attendance at training will lead to the expected and desired uplift and competence. But this isn't always the case and you will need to have in place some way of measuring an uplift in competence and a change in performance. My personal preference is to use Kirkpatrick's Four-Level Training Evaluation Model, which provides a framework to assess training efficacy at different levels:

• Level 1: Reaction - How did the participants feel about the training? We often refer to this as the happy sheet completed at the end of the training which asks people how did you feel about the content, the facilities, the trainer, and even the catering. You can see that simply getting level 1 doesn't really give you any insights into the application in your skills.
• Level 2: Learning - What did the participants learn? Completing this level of training efficacy will mean that you have some sort of test that you will put people through to see if they have learned something from the training. Obviously some forms of training particularly those based on awarding credentials or qualifications will have this built into them. You will probably want to know what the pass mark is, how the pass mark was determined, how the questions were written (for example were they written in accordance with ISO 17,000 and 24) in order to determine how valid the testing actually is.
• Level 3: Behavior - How did participants apply the knowledge? This level will require you to either ask the participants how they have managed to apply the knowledge they have gained, or for you to observe them applying the knowledge.
• Level 4: Results - What tangible results emerged from the training? The top level of this model requires not just an assessment of an increase in knowledge and a demonstration of applying the new knowledge or skills, but also and assessment of actual improvements in performance for the individual and the organization as a result of the investment in the training.

Using this model, organizations can evaluate the immediate and long-term impact of training on both the individual and organizational levels get a really clear picture of whether or not the training has had the desired impact or not.

Every organization, and indeed every individual, has unique needs. Training programs need to be tailored to address these specific needs to be effective. A well-thought-out training program, developed with clear objectives in mind, ensures that it addresses these needs.

Professional training is not just about conducting sessions and workshops. It's about ensuring that these sessions lead to desired outcomes, transforming both individuals and organizations. Using tools like Blooms Taxonomy for defining objectives and Kirkpatrick's model for assessment ensures that training is both comprehensive and effective. Remember, training without thoughtful planning and assessment is an exercise in futility. Invest wisely!

(For those keen on diving deeper, Blooms Taxonomy and the Kirkpatrick model have been extensively discussed in academic and professional literature. A quick search can provide numerous resources for further reading.)

In our daily interactions, whether we're mentoring a colleague, guiding a friend, or even giving directions to a stranger, the art of giving advice or passing on knowledge plays a crucial role. However, the way in which we deliver this advice, or knowledge, can make all the difference.

I’ve been seeing a lot of advice lately which focuses on the bad types of managers, the bad types of leader, the bad types of project management, the bad types of sponsor …. you get the picture. Somewhere it is implied that you need to watch out for, avoid, or actively manage these ‘bad’ examples. I think that if you read enough of these you will think that the world is only full on this type of person. You may also develop the belief that if you do the opposite of what the bad persons characteristics are, that this will mean you are doing ‘good’. This isn’t necessarily the case. The opposite of bad can actually be worse instead of good.

I appreciate that the authors of these pieces are genuinely trying to educate and pass on knowledge but there are much better ways to do this focussing on what is bad.

Imagine you're lost in a city somewhere, and you ask a local for directions. If they spend 10 minutes explaining all the routes you shouldn't take because of the bad things that can happen, you'll probably be more confused than before, and not really know where to start. On the other hand, if they give you a clear and direct good route, with perhaps a brief mention of roads to avoid, you'll be on your way in no time. The same principle should apply to the advice we give or receive in life.

Sure, it's essential to be aware of potential pitfalls and challenges. It gives a realistic view of the situation at hand. But, when the narrative becomes solely about what not to do, it can create a sense of fear or anxiety. The person seeking or receiving the advice might become overly cautious, second-guessing every step, and missing out on potential opportunities.

On the flip side, focusing on the positive aspects, the 'do's rather than the 'don'ts, can be empowering. It provides a clear path forward and encourages proactive action.

So maybe start to move away from a total focus on what’s bad, and start to focus on what’s good – there is a school of thought called Appreciative Inquiry that focusses on the positive and by repeating what is good hopes to crowd out the negative (very simple description btw).

Here are some benefits of being positive with your advice:

1. Clarity and Direction: Just like letting people know the direct and ‘good’ route in my earlier example, positive advising offers a clear path. It's easier to follow a roadmap of actionable steps than navigate a maze of warnings and what to avoid.
2. Boosts Confidence: Hearing about the potential successes and best practices can instil confidence in people. It reassures them that they are capable of achieving their goals. Let them know that good exists and is possible.
3. Promotes Optimism: A positive outlook can be contagious. By focusing on the good, you're fostering an environment of optimism and encouraging others to adopt the same perspective.
4. Builds Trust: When you offer constructive advice, it shows that you believe in the individual's potential. This can strengthen your relationship and build trust.

While the emphasis should be on the positive, it's also important to strike a useful balance. A brief mention of potential challenges or routes to avoid in any advice or learning can be beneficial. It ensures that people are well-informed and prepared for any eventuality.

So, the next time you find yourself in the role of the advisor or educator, or even LinkedIn influencer, remember the lost traveller metaphor. Guide people on the good route, highlight the positives, and watch them confidently go forward.