Emerging Technologies

5G growth hits the brakes

Technology advancement is in continuous motion these days.  One of the technologies currently in motion is 5G.  5G stands to create new opportunities for organizations to interact differently across their stakeholder communities.  MarketWatch recently reported that the global 5G Infrastructure Market back in 2016 had a value of $0.56 billion – that is not much at all.  Currently it is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just over 51% through 2025.  That means it is currently projected to reach an incredible $22.93 billion USD by 2025.  Once again, that is a very aggressive growth projection given a significant problem that is currently being experienced!

 INSIGHT:  In a recent poll, a mere 13.6 percent of respondents believed 5G was the technology innovation that would have the greatest impact in the next 3 to 5 years!

In January 2020, the U.S. Senate held a hearing with authorities in 5G.  Once again, a common issue in emerging technology came up and was discussed.  The shortage of properly skilled workers is, and will, inhibit the progress of changing / installing the infrastructure needed to support 5G. Fiber technicians, trench technicians, tower technicians and many more job titles were discussed.  One metric that was given was the current 'tower climber' workforce is around 21,000.  They estimate another 20,000 tower climbers are needed to support the transition to 5G.

During their discussion they stated that some training programs are in place and others are in the pipeline while additional programs are under consideration.  However, some programs are having trouble attracting people to enroll and take the courses! Once completed, the individuals are tested and if they pass, they are certified to perform a certain role, it's functions and job tasks. Where will all those workers come from given the U.S. has the lowest unemployment rate in about 50 years?  How will we get the training delivered and get them certified to perform this work? How long will this take? How much will this delay 5G?

Note:  One individual that testified stated, additional skills are necessary for these individuals even once they graduate and received the certification (card).

This problem is so profound, companies are beginning to go back into the high schools to recruit, offer scholarships and even working - apprenticeships to try and overcome the problem. The availability of properly skilled workers is a common and growing issue in all emerging technologies. There is no easy, quick reactive answer.  Some large organizations are beginning to examine creating their own college/university as a benefit they offer to attract workers right out of high school and to provide reskilling of their existing workers.  

Additional information about the Talent issue - LINK:  https://www.projectmanagement.com/articles/610748/The-Talent-Dilemma--Dealing-With-Departure-Disruption-5G

There are many aspects of 3D printing that are accelerating and expected to continue to aggressively advance in the next few years.  Its impact is being felt from conceptualization through development and production into post production service and support.  3D printers are also being called additive manufacturing equipment with a projected transformational impact to traditional and existing / current production lines and manufacturing facilities.  Currently a growing number of researchers, analysts and advisors are beginning to call 3D printing a “core technological enabler” for the current decade as well as a significant contributor to Industry 4.0 that this blog has mentioned before.

INSIGHT:  The World Economic Forum (WEF) 2020 produced a document titled, “3D Printing: A Guide for Decision-Makers” and this clearly shows the level of interest and likely impact of this technology. 
LINK: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Impacts_3D_Printing_on_Trade_Supply_Chains_Toolkit.pdf

Mordor Intelligence reported in 2019, the global 3D printing market was valued at $13.7 billion USD.  They went on to project that the global 3D Printing market, is estimated to grow to nearly $63.5 billion USD in 2025.  Once again, like many emerging technologies, 3D printing has a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and this time it is nearly 29.5% over the forecast period (2025). It should be noted that some regulations and restrictions are currently under consideration and that they have the potential to slow the projected growth.

The current major and dominant 3D printing market segments include the following:

• Cement
• Fabrics
• Ceramics
• Metals
• Plastics

NOTE: Human Tissue is an emerging market segment that stands to have huge implications.  It could produce replacement human tissues and organs that do not experience rejection by our bodies.

It should be noted that nano-materials are expected to continue and produce elements for use in 3D printers as well as bio-materials and other technologies. This will continue to fuel application in industries such as aerospace, automotive, construction, consumer products, defense, dental, healthcare, industrial products, jewelry, manufacturing and so much more and that includes new products as well as supplying spare replacement parts.

CASE STUDY: An aging electro-mechanical system broke down and was in need of a replacement part.  The model was no longer supported and would require 6 weeks to produce the replacement part by the original manufacturer.  The system would be inoperable until the part arrived.  One of the maintenance workers contacted a local 3D printing vendor and provided drawings of the part.  The part was produced in a couple of days and cost much less than was quoted by the original manufacturer of the system.  It should be noted that one professional expressed concern that this example could result in a legal dispute given the original system developer/manufacturer that designed and produced the product, may feel they own all the rights to it.  An interesting legal consideration for sure.

Please contribute to the current 3D Printing utilization poll.  LINK:  https://www.projectmanagement.com/contentPages/poll.cfm?ID=607173&thisPageURL=/polls/607173/Has-or-is-your-organization-examined-or-is-examining-the-potential-implications-and-use-of-3D-printing-in-prototype-development-and-or-in-manufacturing-of-products-or-as-a-component-of-your-services-&msg=Your%20comment%20has%20been%20posted%20below%2E

Clearly, 3D printing as another emerging technology that will likely rapidly evolve over the next decade and create new capabilities that are used to produce products and services.  We all know PMs will be the ones expected to bring these to reality. Just think about the overall impact on traditional supply-chains and the maintenance profession! Is 3D printing in your future?  Certainly, something to think about.

Quantum technologies continue to advance beyond the expectations of many. At this point there are a dozen technological advances that fit into the emerging technology category. We should forget for a while, about all the fancy titles and get to what is important and that is the issues and opportunities that each of these underlying quantum technologies are likely to create. One of those quantum technologies has emerged recently that looks to have a substantial impact and robust projected market.  For now, let’s look specifically at Quantum Networks. Some are calling this a second quantum revolution. It should be noted that the quantum network is often referred to as Quantum Internet, Quantum Communications, and Quantum Telecommunications.

Quantum networks (QN) function much in the same way as the traditional communications networks that I am sure we are all familiar with. QNs are the result of the integration of quantum computers and quantum communication technologies into an operational system. They operate to transmit data and information in quantum bits (qubits) rather than the bits and bytes that have been in use for decades.  The biggest difference is the level of security (quantum encryption) of the information transmitted over quantum networks. That specific value is the main driver of the market for this emerging quantum technology segment.

According to a new report from Inside Quantum Technology (IQT), the market for quantum networking is expected to reach $5.5 billion USD by 2025.  LINK: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quantum-networking-5-5-billion-151345253.html  While quantum networks are basically non-existent today, reaching the $5.5 billion USD market estimate they reported will have to have a huge compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next few years.  It should be noted that a number of analysts, researchers and advisors believe the quantum internet might be closer than is being projected. At this point there are no referenceable reports available that acknowledges a quantum network in operation today.  Given that piece of information, a substantial amount of work will have to be done in the next five years (by 2025). For those of you that regularly follow this emerging technology blog, I am sure you are beginning to see a pattern here. There are a number of emerging technologies with billions of dollars of market by 2025 and they are adding up to a substantial number of programs and projects that have to take place in the next few years to meet the financial projections put forth by market analysts!

Quantum computers continue to evolve and, in some cases, their advancement is occurring more rapidly than anticipated.  As my PMI webinar (link below) suggested, progressive researchers and organizations have begun to forecast the implications of the unique processing capabilities quantum computers will likely have.  One of the more concerning implications of the commercial availability of a quantum computer of an appropriate size is its ability to break current levels of encryption.  Some have forecast that a quantum computer of this size will be available in the not so distant future – a few years, not decades.

Back in 2016 the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) announced its ‘Effort to Defend Encrypted Data from Quantum Computer Threat.’  In 2019 they announced new efforts given the current perspective for advancing quantum computing capabilities.  This is a really big issue; however, currently, there is a viable solution to this pending problem – it’s called quantum encryption (QE) and it is at the very early stages of commercialization.  QE is the science and technology that applies the rules of quantum mechanics to perform encryption. Fior Markets projects the global quantum encryption market is expected to grow from $107 million in 2017 to nearly $760 million by 2025.  That is nearly a 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast in those early stages of QE’s evolution.  In addition, it clearly shows the recognized need to address this problem and to do it now!

The continued digitalization of our information assets and systems is driving cybercrime and the theft of data. According to a report by Cybersecurity Ventures, cybercrime is projected to cost the world more than $6 trillion annually by 2021. Quantum encryption goes a long way to help mitigate the risks and reduce the financial losses associated with the theft of our data and digital assets.  Based on current information from a defense organization coupled with projections from technology leaders, quantum computers will likely be capable of beginning to break current levels of encryption by 2024.  Efforts need to be made to protect our data, both stored and while being digitally transmitted (including over 5G), from this pending threat.  Given the close proximity of the 2024 date and the fact that the planning, analysis and execution of a quantum encryption replacement project will likely take 12 to 18 months for the mid-sized companies, organizations would be well advised to begin now.

Project Management Quantum Technology (a bit dated) Webinar:  https://www.projectmanagement.com/videos/573047/Preparing-Project-Managers-for-Quantum-Technology-Projects

Each and every day as of late, new and innovative use cases for emerging technologies are being developed by the innovative creators of the digitally connected world of tomorrow. They are inventing the products and services that will have an impact on nearly every aspect of our daily lives.  With that said, properly leveraging emerging technologies throughout our career is becoming just what is needed to achieve the success we seek and desire. Whether it is in our home and personal lives or the business and work environments that we spend an increasing percentage of our time, whether we like it or not, we are more than ever before, connected, interacting and reliant upon with digital technology. We have little choice.

Whether at home, work or somewhere in between, we are connected and the way we are engaging with each other has significantly changed. This is also true in the way we engage our systems and pieces of emerging technologies like Smart Homes, Smart Buildings, Smart Highways, Smart Vehicles and we should not forget intelligent systems that are currently in place today and smarter ones coming in the near-term. The digital/connected aspects of our professional and personal lives have become so intertwined compared to what we had experienced in the past and with what has now become to be known as the norm, has led many to now believe it is essential to keep up with and have a basic understanding of emerging technologies.  However, we must break-out and isolate ourselves from time to time. Give our brains some rest and down-time.

One of the more rapidly growing issues that has begun to face and increasing number of professionals is the burn-out now being associated with the digital change (both plus and minus) and the technological sophistication and digital interaction as we move from job to job.  It is unclear what is more challenging, moving from a technologically advanced organization to one that is technologically challenged or vice versa. Perhaps that is something we all had better consider when we look at changing jobs from now on.