Emerging Technologies

Looking back, I remember my first personal computer in the early 1980s, the first time logging into an online service (CompuServe - over a 300 baud dial up modem by Radio Shack) in the early 1980s as well, my first IBM PC compatible computer (640k of memory and 20 meg hard-drive), the introductions of servers (no longer just mainframes), cell phones,  the introduction of the web browser (NETSCAPE), smartphones, and so much more.  This technology evolution took decades.

Now the massive advancements and introduction of numerous emerging technologies are beginning to minimize the ability to assess their disruptive changes on one hand, and planning their strategic integration on the other.  This is beginning to have a huge impact on nearly every aspect of our lives (business and personal). A short distance ahead we can begin to get a glimpse of what our business and personal lives might be like with all of the emerging technologies culminating into the high-tech world of tomorrow. 

Some seem to think it is already hear.  Others believe it is vastly overstated and may never come to fruition. What we have begun to experience is without question the new normal.  The new normal is the inflection point where multiple technologies rapidly move from the research and experimental phase to real-world commercial application and a topic on the agenda of board meetings. This period will only take a few years (3 to 5).

The big question on the minds of strategists and business leaders is what should we expect to be the next normal? Perhaps that should be on the minds of every program and project manager as well. All too often we are so caught-up in the trials and tribulations of delivering current programs and projects, future planning falls by the wayside. Don’t you think it would be best if we all take steps and begin to prepare for this coming period of rapid, dynamic change whether it is in 2025 or beyond. After all we will be expected to deliver it!  I think we all would be much better off that way.

INSIGHT: John Sculley former Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Apple in the early 80s said, “The future belongs to those who see possibilities before they become obvious.”

When talking about break-through technologies - some place them together under the header of Exponential Innovation, while others put them together under Exponential Technology.   No matter what you call them, they are those technologies where their capabilities (functionality, capacity and performance) doubles in each reporting period of time (typically annually). These technologies are at a point in their evolution where their price/performance makes them viable solutions to real-world problems that up until this point in time, could not have been functionally and/or economically addressed.  Now let’s consider the current spike in the creation and discovery of advancements in technologies that bring with them creative products and services, innovative solutions, and breaking traditional best practices and or thought processes. Basically, we are talking about DRAMATIC CHANGE!

When discussing this topic, many are quick to point to the evolution of microprocessors (chips) as to the first initiation of such an occurrence and reporting. Regardless of its point of origin, it is changing how we must think about business strategy. Below are five of the more commonly referenced exponential technologies of today (alphabetical order).

• Additive aka Accretive Manufacturing (3D Printing)
• Advanced Robotics
• Artificial Intelligence (AI)
• Biotechnology
• Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality/Human Augmentation (VR, AR and HA)

Stop for a moment and think about these five technologies and the potential implications of their exponential advancement on your organization and more importantly, your career. Now consider this represents only a small percentage of the technologies commonly put under this same exponential innovation umbrella. How prepared are you and your organization? If you’re not, time is flying by.  It might be a career limiting move if you fall behind or fail to catch up.

INSIGHT: John D. Rockefeller said, "Don't be afraid to give up the good to go for the great."

I just read a report by a management consulting firm that looked at what was on the minds of members of the board.  As it turns out, they want to know how long it takes the organization to develop and deploy new features and functionality.  That appears to put PMs in the spotlight with members of the board!

Times have certainly changed and much of that change can be attributed to technology.  Today many organizations around the world are experiencing the daunting task of rapid and continuous change.   All too often organizations are discovering that their infrastructure, processes, and even their workforce are slow at best, if not inflexible, when it comes to change. When these organizations fail to address these issue their future certainly looks bleak.  Today organizations must be extremely responsive to change.  That requires the strategic planning process to change.  All together the changes and emerging technologies have come together to make strategic planning part art and science!

Wearable Technology (WT) – WT goes far beyond the glasses, visors and headsets that many think of when they hear the term.  Today our world is full of a host of gadgets that include intelligence garment labels like the ones you find in the neck (back) of a shirt or coat, as well as some that are in the soles of your shoes.  Some of these are made of flexible circuit boards that appear to be nothing more than a sheet of plastic with gold foil on them.  One recent estimate places the number of smart wearable devices above 410 million in 2020.  The value of all those devices will hit an astonishing $34 billion in that same time period.  Now the BCC Research study puts the global market for wearable computing products is projected to reach $22.6 billion.  Either way it is a big and growing market.  This segment is often included in estimates for the Internet of Things and far larger than many people have thought.  Top applications includes sports, healthcare, and worker accountability.