Emerging Technologies

5G growth hits the brakes

Technology advancement is in continuous motion these days.  One of the technologies currently in motion is 5G.  5G stands to create new opportunities for organizations to interact differently across their stakeholder communities.  MarketWatch recently reported that the global 5G Infrastructure Market back in 2016 had a value of $0.56 billion – that is not much at all.  Currently it is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just over 51% through 2025.  That means it is currently projected to reach an incredible $22.93 billion USD by 2025.  Once again, that is a very aggressive growth projection given a significant problem that is currently being experienced!

 INSIGHT:  In a recent poll, a mere 13.6 percent of respondents believed 5G was the technology innovation that would have the greatest impact in the next 3 to 5 years!

In January 2020, the U.S. Senate held a hearing with authorities in 5G.  Once again, a common issue in emerging technology came up and was discussed.  The shortage of properly skilled workers is, and will, inhibit the progress of changing / installing the infrastructure needed to support 5G. Fiber technicians, trench technicians, tower technicians and many more job titles were discussed.  One metric that was given was the current 'tower climber' workforce is around 21,000.  They estimate another 20,000 tower climbers are needed to support the transition to 5G.

During their discussion they stated that some training programs are in place and others are in the pipeline while additional programs are under consideration.  However, some programs are having trouble attracting people to enroll and take the courses! Once completed, the individuals are tested and if they pass, they are certified to perform a certain role, it's functions and job tasks. Where will all those workers come from given the U.S. has the lowest unemployment rate in about 50 years?  How will we get the training delivered and get them certified to perform this work? How long will this take? How much will this delay 5G?

Note:  One individual that testified stated, additional skills are necessary for these individuals even once they graduate and received the certification (card).

This problem is so profound, companies are beginning to go back into the high schools to recruit, offer scholarships and even working - apprenticeships to try and overcome the problem. The availability of properly skilled workers is a common and growing issue in all emerging technologies. There is no easy, quick reactive answer.  Some large organizations are beginning to examine creating their own college/university as a benefit they offer to attract workers right out of high school and to provide reskilling of their existing workers.  

Additional information about the Talent issue - LINK:  https://www.projectmanagement.com/articles/610748/The-Talent-Dilemma--Dealing-With-Departure-Disruption-5G

Quantum computers continue to evolve and, in some cases, their advancement is occurring more rapidly than anticipated.  As my PMI webinar (link below) suggested, progressive researchers and organizations have begun to forecast the implications of the unique processing capabilities quantum computers will likely have.  One of the more concerning implications of the commercial availability of a quantum computer of an appropriate size is its ability to break current levels of encryption.  Some have forecast that a quantum computer of this size will be available in the not so distant future – a few years, not decades.

Back in 2016 the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) announced its ‘Effort to Defend Encrypted Data from Quantum Computer Threat.’  In 2019 they announced new efforts given the current perspective for advancing quantum computing capabilities.  This is a really big issue; however, currently, there is a viable solution to this pending problem – it’s called quantum encryption (QE) and it is at the very early stages of commercialization.  QE is the science and technology that applies the rules of quantum mechanics to perform encryption. Fior Markets projects the global quantum encryption market is expected to grow from $107 million in 2017 to nearly $760 million by 2025.  That is nearly a 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast in those early stages of QE’s evolution.  In addition, it clearly shows the recognized need to address this problem and to do it now!

The continued digitalization of our information assets and systems is driving cybercrime and the theft of data. According to a report by Cybersecurity Ventures, cybercrime is projected to cost the world more than $6 trillion annually by 2021. Quantum encryption goes a long way to help mitigate the risks and reduce the financial losses associated with the theft of our data and digital assets.  Based on current information from a defense organization coupled with projections from technology leaders, quantum computers will likely be capable of beginning to break current levels of encryption by 2024.  Efforts need to be made to protect our data, both stored and while being digitally transmitted (including over 5G), from this pending threat.  Given the close proximity of the 2024 date and the fact that the planning, analysis and execution of a quantum encryption replacement project will likely take 12 to 18 months for the mid-sized companies, organizations would be well advised to begin now.

Project Management Quantum Technology (a bit dated) Webinar:  https://www.projectmanagement.com/videos/573047/Preparing-Project-Managers-for-Quantum-Technology-Projects

Chances are, nearly all of us have heard of the Internet of Things (IoT) by now.  IoT can be many things and that list continues to grow with new innovative ideas being explored daily.  Basically, we can think of it as a non-traditional network connected device.  To expand upon that, IoT is a collection of billions of physical (electro/mechanical) devices that serve a wide variety of purposes and are distributed throughout the world and are connected to the Internet. It is a device or system that is electro/mechanical equipment with digital input/output.  It is a wide variety of network connected computing components.  Each with a unique identifier that enables it to transfer data over a network without any other assistance or interaction. That data is received and processed and utilized by a variety of systems/applications and their number grow minute by minute.

The shrinking physical size and cost of microprocessors is expected to propel the global IoT market forecasts.  All things considered suggests that the number of IoT devices will grow to around $1.6 trillion U.S. dollars by 2025. That is up from just over $210 billion U.S. dollars in size at the end of 2019. Link: https://www.statista.com/statistics/976313/global-iot-market-size/  It is important to keep in mind that IoT will be influenced by a number of emerging technologies and that includes blockchain technology as well as 5G. Many believe that IoT will have a transformative and disruptive impact on business, government, industry and our daily lives. Given the projected growth, variety of applications and estimated value IoT brings to the table, program and project managers will likely see initiatives involving IoT devices and technologies going forward.

More and more organizations are struggling to keep up with emerging technologies.  Many program and project managers are experiencing the same difficulty.  A recent publication in EnterpriseInnovation is worth reading.  It covers three areas of emerging technologies - 5G (wireless), AI/Machine Learning and Digital Platforms.  It is a quick read!

https://www.enterpriseinnovation.net/article/which-emerging-tech-worth-your-time-243487772?qt-knowledge_central_node_contextua=0