Random Thoughts

Leonardo de Vinci said these words some 500 years ago. The words of a visionary. Fast forward to 1960, the KISS principle – Keep It Simple, Silly (or Stupid, depending on the source) – states that most systems work best if they are kept simple. In other terms, unnecessary complexity must be avoided. This postulate resonates well with other famed quotes of Albert Einstein "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough" or French writer Antoine de Saint-Éxupery “It seems that perfection is reached not when there is nothing left to add, but when there is nothing left to take away”. We aim for simplicity in an increasingly Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous world (VUCA, an acronym coined in 1987). As a society and as individuals, we face a constant challenge: to be able to simplify in a complex environment.

In the recent history one can find examples of how simplicity has led to successful stories. I recall that my first cell phone, back in the mid-90s, came with a thick booklet of instructions. Operating the phone – not yet smart – required some serious reading and testing. As technology advanced, phones became smarter and simpler. As a matter of fact, Apple’s cofounder Steve Jobs developed a phone with a revolutionary user interface that made an instructions booklet unnecessary. The user was able to operate the phone and test its functionalities in a simple manner. The customer valued the iPhone’s simplicity. It is not surprising that the message displayed on the wall of Apple’s marketing department reads “Simplify, Simplify, Simplify…” with the first two words stroked-trough…

Project management is a discipline affected by the shift towards simplicity. An example of this can be seen in the evolution of the number of pages in one of the most used resources, the PMBoK (Project Management Body of Knowledge, from the Project Management Institute). From the 1^st ed., released in 1996, until the 6^th ed., released in 2017, the number of pages has steadily increased until reaching an staggering 978 pages for the 6^th ed. The 7^th and last edition to date, released in 2021, has knocked this figure down to 370. The decrease of the number of pages is a consequence of a shift towards simplicity and a focus in performance over processes; the 49 (!) processes in PMBoK 6^th ed. have turned into 8 performance domains and 12 project management principles. It is a step in the good direction and opens up the door to further simplicity in the coming years.

Along these lines, I would like to recommend the Project Management Handbook by Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez (Harvard Business Review), who is able to address project management from an outsider’s perspective in a pragmatic and hand-on manner. As he writes, a simple framework and a common language are key elements to the success of almost any endeavor.

Last but not least. Simplicity derives from a standard with which we are all equipped: common sense, although Voltaire said in 1764 that common sense is not so common. Surely we have experienced conversations at work that have spiraled towards complexity. Before we know it, parallel arguments and theories are thrown in about topics that add little in solving the real issue; on the contrary, they add up complexity. In these cases, applying a dose of unbiased fact-based common sense is often the first step in the right direction. It is not my intention to claim that the application of simplicity is a silver bullet for all issues. But amid a bombardment of  dozens of methodologies and practices, it is important to make sure that we do not neglect something as valuable as common sense.

I recently came across an attention-grabbing paper titled “Dance hit song prediction”. In this research, the authors developed a predictive model to evaluate the likelihood of a new tune making it to the chart’s Top 10. For that purpose, a vast database containing dance hit songs from 1985 to 2013 was built; attributes such as tempo, duration, loudness, energy and danceability were measured. Amazingly enough, the model showed a success predictability of more than 70%!

Could a homologous predictive model for project success be successfully developed (pun intended)? In a world that spends $48 trillion every year on projects, a success ratio of only 35% is not acceptable (data published by the Standish group). Invigorating the success rate is not a trivial task. Before a model can be developed - not in the scope of this humble article - it is indispensable to identify the key parameters that play a role in project success.

The list below captures my Top 10:

1. Familiarity of the performing organization with similar projects. Certainly, one can expect a decreasing success rate with increasing project complexity and/or uncertainty.
2. Strength of business case and association of the project with a higher purpose. Broadly put, projects are initiated to exploit opportunities or to solve issues. The project's ultimate purpose must be summarized in a concise statement agreed upon by all stakeholders.
3. Alignment of the project within the performing organization strategy. Although projects are conceived and executed in a dynamic world (the infamous VUCA acronym), this should not be used as an excuse for accepting chaos. Some projects will need to be cancelled and others are swerved to the fast lane. Whichever case, the decisions must be consistently aligned with the organization's overall strategy.
4. Commitment from the project sponsor and the rest of the project team. The role of the sponsor is critical and goes beyond funding the project. In fact, the sponsor must challenge, support and steer the project. Sponsoring a countless number of projects at a time is inefficient and can lead to delays and frustration. 
5. Selection and usage of appropriate and meaningful project performance indicators. Think of Einstein when defining KPIs; he wrote, "If you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid".
6. Organizational set-up (for example, siloed vs. non-siloed). Companies are gradually shifting towards non-siloed fluid structures with more room for interaction and shorter communication lines. This pragmatic way of working allows frequent feedback from project stakeholders and can significantly contribute to its success.
7. Resource availability & competencies. The management of projects is all about people: people are key! For the sake of success, it is essential to understand that a higher variance - people involved in several projects at a time - will take a toll on project success.
8. Truthfulness and accuracy of project schedule and budget. Even agile projects have plans, albeit susceptible to frequent change or pivoting.
9. Availability of a project management plan or its subsidiaries, depending on project size and inner project characteristics (communication plan, risk management plan, etc.). Like Benjamin Franklin wrote, "Fail to plan and you are planning to fail". 
10. Clarity in project deliverables. The image below describes this well:

Do all ten items above have similar weights or is Pareto playing a role? Are there other factors missing? Have your saying in the comments section below. 

When I was a little kid I used to read “Don Miki”, a thin booklet containing graphic comics of Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck and other characters like Goofy, Gyro Gearloose or the orange colored dog Pluto. It came out every two weeks and my grandmother visited the kiosk regularly to buy the latest issue, so I could enjoy reading it during my visits. Looking back, I realized that my passion for reading started perhaps with Walt Disney’s comics.

Fast forward to today, I found myself flipping through the pages of an ancient Don Miki together with my daughter; although she is still too young to grasp the content and moral of the stories, she surely enjoys glazing at the colorful pages. As I read the booklet, I put on the project manager lenses to realize that the fictitious characters with beaks and feathers could well be blueprints of their flesh and bone counterparts!

I start with Donald Duck, an ill-tempered character with an upbeat attitude to life. He is a total procrastinator who chooses to take long naps over doing something useful. When he runs out of cash, which is almost every day, he doesn’t hesitate to ask his wealthy uncle Scrooge. Budget management surely would not be amongst his top three skills. He doesn’t get or do anything right and blames everyone else but himself for his disgrace. Despite these numerous flaws, Donald has a heart of gold. He would never leave his three nephews Huey, Dewey and Louie behind although sometimes he has a peculiar way of showing affection. With all due respect, I’d not choose this gracious duck to be in any of my teams.

But I would not vacillate to hire his beloved nephews Huey, Dewey and Louie - if they would have the minimum working age, naturally! They are crafty, inventive, responsible and always willing to give a helping hand in finding creative solutions to all sorts of problems. Their willingness to learn and experiment makes up for their shortcomings in areas that they are not too acquainted with. With such a wide array of skills, who could resist welcoming them onboard?

Another one that I would enlist without hesitation is Gyro Gearloose, the genius inventor with an outrageous productivity rate, although sometimes his inventions do not work out the way he planned to. Can you picture Gyro in a scrum meeting? He would flourish in this setting, coming up with new features and ideas, and probably driving the rest of the development team crazy. Gyro is a superb mix of a generator and a conceptualizer who thrives on solving problems and exploring new opportunities. Assign him a predictable project and he’ll soon become demotivated and bored; enroll him in a highly adventurous initiative and he’ll quickly become the team cornerstone. 

Last but not least, Mickey Mouse. He is a sweet, easy-going and carefree character, always eager to share his positivity with others and keep their spirits high during low times. Moreover, he is a composed professional even when inconveniences get in the way. On top of that, he is a true altruist who risks his own life for the safety of others without expecting any reward in return. I don’t know if you’d agree, but I believe that Mickey Mouse would make a striking project manager!

The objective of this article is to provide a high-level analysis of the relationship between project management and the contribution of value in the achievement of strategic objectives. Concepts such as agile transformation or project economy have become part of the business lexicon in a rapidly changing environment. The covid-19 vaccine development and commercialization project is a representative example of a new paradigm in the creation and management of value.

From the Great Pyramids to the project economy
As has happened with many disciplines throughout history, project management has evolved dramatically. In fact, projects have been around for thousands of years, although the term "project" was not coined until 1400 AD. (it derives from the Latin term proiectum, which means "to throw, to direct forward"). No one questions whether the construction of the Great Pyramids of Egypt some 4,500 years ago was a project. It was, and it also produced an impressive result, no less than one of the seven wonders of the world.

Moving to more recent times, it was not until the 20^th century that the popularity and professionalization of project management increased and different associations began to emerge to proselytize various project management frameworks, tools and techniques. A transition process is currently underway towards the so-called project economy, in which people acquire the skills and abilities necessary to turn ideas into reality. Value is created through successful project completion, product delivery, and alignment with the organization's strategic goals. In the project economy, project managers abandon operational tasks and begin to bear higher levels of responsibility in converting ideas into value.

The project manager of the 21st century
The traditional approach to project management, commonly called predictive or waterfall, has been incorporating a growing presence of adaptive or agile elements. Agility is a scalable concept and can encompass the entire organization in what is called agile transformation. This transformation is not free of challenges and obstacles. According to a 2018 McKinsey & Deloitte study, 90% of surveyed senior executives want to implement agility in their companies, but only 10% believe they have done so successfully. The agile transformation success stories of companies such as Microsoft or Apple show the way forward for companies in other industries, such as pharmaceuticals, albeit with nuances.

Broadly speaking, there are two factors to consider when evaluating the suitability of a predictive or adaptive model to achieve the objectives of a project: the need for creativity and the speed of commercialization.

A manufacturing line validation project or one for the development of new drugs requires different levels of creativity and speed to market. The former fits well into more traditional or predictive management while the latter requires an approach that facilitates greater adaptability. There is no one model superior to the other, the two models or their mixture are perfectly viable and must be molded according to the specific needs that each situation and moment demands. Something similar to what happens with the so-called scrumban, an unregulated mixture of scrum and Kanban that creates misgivings in some purists but can be highly effective.

There is no doubt, the world today is changing at a great speed. The acronym VUCA has been added to the dictionary of professionals in all fields. The paradigm shift affects aspects such as corporate culture, promoting collaboration and entrepreneurship, or structural ones, moving from a hierarchical or silos arrangement to others with a higher level of self-management. Projects and their managers are not impervious to these changes, continuously adapting without losing sight of the main objective: to promote change and add value.

A 2019 Gartner study ensures that 80% of the tasks carried out by a project manager will have been eliminated by 2030 as a result of the rise of artificial intelligence. Report writing, monitoring or data collection will add to the list of machine payroll activities. Even the selection of projects that make up the portfolio can be delegated to computers. However, the project manager is still in the top 20 of the most in-demand roles across all industries. To stay in this privileged position, the project management professional must expand their field of action and incorporate a series of elements such as agile, lean, design thinking or product management, among others, thus becoming an implementing agent of business strategy.

Vaccines in record time
The development of vaccines for the fight against covid-19 is a representative example of the paradigm shift mentioned above. Companies, universities and institutes around the world have collaborated to achieve amazing results in record time. The relatively flat structure of biotech companies such as BioNTech or universities such as Oxford facilitated an agile environment with short communication lines and a high level of collaboration between different stakeholders. And all this without losing sight of the ultimate goal: the development of a safe and effective vaccine to end the pandemic. The journal Nature published an infographic illustrating the differences between traditional vaccine development and the SARS-CoV-2 virus vaccine (Nature 586, 516–527 (2020)).

Although the stages are the same for both cases, there is a factor of 10 to 18 between the duration of the projects, thus making it possible to obtain value early. The accelerated development of vaccines against covid-19 is due to a multitude of circumstances: a very short research phase due to the prior knowledge of vaccines for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, the parallel execution of phases I and II of the clinical study (fast-tracking, in traditional project management jargon) and large-scale vaccine production before obtaining a marketing permit from regulatory authorities (another traditional project schedule management technique called lead).

From a management point of view, the development of the new vaccines has used a hybrid model that adds traditional elements such as lead or fast-tracking to a highly agile environment. In addition, it is an example of generating value throughout the life cycle of the project. For example, mRNA technology was developed before the pandemic, thus generating value that was later realized in the creation of the vaccine. Gone are the times in which it was common to spend long periods without harvesting any fruit to end up delivering the value generated shortly before closing the project. The hybrid model used to commercialize coronavirus vaccines in record time has created a precedent for future developments in the biotechnology field.

Driving change
However, any change has to overcome several barriers before it can be effectively implemented. Resistance to change is one of the factors that read consultants often come across, the popular "it's always been done this way." Kotter already defined in 1995 the three stages in the effective management of change: the creation of a climate to carry it out, the involvement and commitment of the organization, and the implementation and maintenance of change. Although the speed of adoption of change may vary depending on the intrinsic characteristics of each company and the surrounding circumstances, all of them continuously experience a change of greater or lesser intensity in their WoW (Ways of Working, a term commonly used among agilists).

To quote the famous saying, the best way to deal with change is to help create it. Are you in?

One of the frequently asked questions is whether a project manager should be knowledgeable (or an expert) in the field of the project. For example, can someone with a background in chemistry and little knowledge in IT systems architecture effectively manage a project to deploy a new ERP system? Most respondents indicated that although having a deep knowledge on the specific domain(s) is not mandatory to successfully lead a project, a certain degree of familiarity does certainly add value.

My experience leading projects in the pharmaceutical sector, and within the manufacturing area in particular, concurs with the survey outcome. In fact, I have witnessed heavy struggles from seasoned IT project managers in the management of projects related to the manufacturing of pharmaceutical products.

One reason that could explain this is that the pharmaceutical industry is very highly regulated. Before one moves his right hand needs to ask permission to his left. Hyperbole aside, failing to understand and adhere to Good Manufacturing Practices (or GxP in general) will raise eyebrows from team members and other relevant stakeholders. How can this person manage these type of projects when he is lacking the very basic foundation upon which the rest is built?

In addition, the manufacturing of medicines or APIs (active pharmaceutical ingredients) involve several disciplines such as chemistry, biology and engineering. A project to validate a  new production process or to qualify a new equipment requires the completion of a set of deliverables such as IQs (Installation Qualification), OQs (Operational  Qualification), PQs (Production Qualification) amongst many others. These documents are highly technical and even though they are authored, reviewed and approved by diffferent team members, the PM must be able understand  their significance. By failing to do so, he risks becoming a mere project administrator whose main task is to follow up on the status of documents which importance can't explain. By using the suitable professional jargon, the PM increases his credibility and boosts his engagement towards the team and the project.

Some theories indicate that organizations across all industries are transitioning towards a project economy. In this setting, the project manager must step up and expand his duties beyond the usual planning and controlling. In this paradigm shift, the PM will own the project in a broader sense of the term. The project economy requires well rounded professionals that can lead the whole process from idea to reality, from a drawing on a white board to a tangible item. If the project economy crystallizes, it is yet another reason to take all the necessary steps to become a knowledgeable individual and own the challenges that await us.