Random Thoughts

Ah, the thrill of decision-making in project management! The excitement, the brainstorming sessions, the camaraderie—and occasionally, the spectacular failures. As I recently delved into Jared Diamond’s Collapse, I was struck by his masterful analysis of how groups stumble into failure. In Chapter 14, Diamond outlines four categories of decision-making pitfalls that resonate deeply with our modern project challenges.

Let’s take a tour through these categories, illustrated by historical examples from his book and mirrored by some contemporary project misadventures.

1. Failing to anticipate a problem

In Collapse, Diamond discusses how the Norse in Greenland failed to anticipate the Little Ice Age. They stuck to their European farming methods despite the changing climate, which ultimately led to their downfall. Fast forward to our era, and think of the blockbuster flop that was Google Glass. The product team, dazzled by the tech’s potential, didn’t anticipate consumer privacy concerns and the social stigma of being a “Glasshole.” Just like the Norse, they stuck to their vision, blind to the gathering storm.

2. Failing to perceive a problem

Diamond points out the classic case of the Easter Island civilization, which didn’t perceive the long-term consequences of deforestation. They chopped down every tree, oblivious to the environmental collapse it would trigger. A modern echo of this is the infamous Boeing 737 Max debacle. Despite internal warnings and obvious design flaws, Boeing failed to perceive—or at least acknowledge—the gravity of the problem until it was too late, resulting in tragic crashes and a costly grounding of the fleet.

3. Failing to try to solve the problem

The classic Maya civilization, another of Diamond's examples, saw environmental degradation and political strife but failed to address these issues effectively. Contemporary parallel? Think of Blockbuster. They saw the rise of digital streaming but chose to ignore it, clinging to their brick-and-mortar model until Netflix and other streaming services had eaten their lunch. It wasn’t that they didn’t perceive the problem; they simply didn’t try to adapt in time.

4. Failing to solve the problem successfully

Lastly, Diamond discusses the example of the Soviet irrigation projects in Central Asia that led to the Aral Sea disaster. They recognized the problem and tried to address water scarcity, but their solutions were catastrophic, turning the sea into a toxic desert. A modern-day counterpart would be the development of the F-35 fighter jet. Despite massive investment and numerous attempts to address its issues, the project has been plagued by cost overruns and technical failures, making it one of the most controversial military projects today.

In conclusion, decision-making is as much about avoiding pitfalls as it is about seizing opportunities. By reflecting on historical and contemporary examples of failed group decisions, we can learn to navigate the complexities of our own projects with a bit more savvy—and perhaps a dash of humility. So, the next time you’re in a meeting and someone says, “What could possibly go wrong?” just remember: quite a lot, actually.

I recently tuned into a fascinating podcast about the making of the classic film "Pretty Woman." What struck me most was how this project, seemingly doomed from the start, turned into a blockbuster hit. This got me thinking about how some projects, despite facing numerous obstacles, can still achieve remarkable success. Here’s a dive into the chaotic yet triumphant journey of "Pretty Woman."

From the get-go, the production faced significant challenges. When shooting commenced, they had only secured 10 out of the +/- 100 actors and actresses they needed. Imagine starting a project with just 10% of your team! It’s akin to launching a new product with only a fraction of your resources in place. But the team forged ahead, showing resilience from the very start.

Interestingly, the original script of "Pretty Woman" wasn't the romantic comedy we all love today. It was a darker drama titled "$3000," referencing the amount of money Richard Gere's character would pay Julia Roberts' character. The script was filled with grim references to drug use and its consequences, far from the feel-good movie it eventually became. This drastic shift in tone reminds me of how initial project plans can undergo massive transformations, often leading to better outcomes, much like in agile project management where flexibility and iteration can yield surprising results.

Another quirk in the production was the on-the-spot scripting. Many scenes were crafted during filming, a process that could easily derail a project. This improvisational approach is akin to building a plane while flying it. Director Garry Marshall wasn’t even sure of the film’s tone, so he shot each scene three times with different emotional undertones—funny, dark, and random. This gave them flexibility in post-production but also highlighted the uncertainty that permeated the project, similar to how agile methodologies allow for adjustments and pivots based on ongoing feedback.

One of the most iconic scenes in the movie—where Richard Gere and Julia Roberts are at a fine dining restaurant and a snail flies out of her hand—wasn’t scripted. This spontaneous moment became one of the most memorable parts of the film. In project management, this is akin to creating value through unexpected features. Sometimes, the unplanned elements can deliver significant value and delight to the stakeholders, reinforcing the importance of being open to spontaneity and seizing unexpected opportunities.

Despite these haphazard elements, the film's release was a roaring success. With a budget of just $14 million, "Pretty Woman" grossed an astonishing $463 million worldwide. This kind of success in the face of so many hurdles is both inspiring and perplexing. It serves as a reminder that sometimes, the most chaotic and seemingly doomed projects can achieve greatness.

Adding to the list of bizarre anecdotes, Julia Roberts was a relatively unknown actress at the time, and Richard Gere almost didn't take the role. The chemistry they brought to the screen was more serendipitous than planned, yet it became a defining element of the film's success.

In conclusion, "Pretty Woman" exemplifies how adaptability, resilience, and a bit of chaos can lead to unexpected success. It’s a testament to the idea that no matter how troubled a project might seem, there’s always a potential for it to turn out incredibly well. So next time you find yourself in a seemingly doomed project, remember the journey of "Pretty Woman" and take heart—you might just be on the brink of a blockbuster.

The skill set of a Project Manager must include the ability to negotiate. Negotiations are the means by which parties can resolve conflicts and thereby arrive at a mutual satisfactory solution. The problem is that often project stakeholders engage in positional bargaining, a negotiation strategy that involves holding onto a fixed idea or position regardless of any underlying interests. In fact, arguing over positions turns out to be inefficient, relationship endangering and might lead to unwise agreements.

An alternative to this is called Principled negotiation. This name was given to the interest-based approach to negotiation set out in the best-known conflict resolution book, Getting to Yes, first published in 1981 by Roger Fisher and William Ury and advocates four fundamental principles of negotiation.

1. Separate the people from the problem

Every negotiator has interest in both the substance and the relationship. Often the relationship becomes entangled with the problem. Thus, it is imperative to separate the relationship from the substance in order to kick off an effective negotiation.

2. Focus on interests, not positions

Quite self-explaining. The identification and discussion of interests is a wise manner to route the negotiation towards a conciliation of interests and not positions.

3. Invent options for mutual gain

Instead of forming a premature judgement of the ideas thrown during a negotiation it is best to ensure an understanding between inventing and deciding. Also, instead of searching for a single answer try to broaden the options (a circle chart can be useful for this purpose). And instead of thinking that “solving their problem is their problem” create an environment that enables making decisions relaxed.  

4. Insist on using objective criteria

In negotiating to purchase a particular car, we would want to look at what that car sells for at other dealerships. The objective criteria are nothing less and nothing more than factual pieces of information, independent of the parties in the negotiation, that are relevant to what should or should not be agreed to in that negotiation. Principled negotiation produces wise agreements amicably and efficiently.

Principled Negotiation is further enhanced by applying the eight following pillars of negotiable wisdom:

1. Be conscious of the difference between positons and interest.
2. Be creative. Using brainstorming techniques, listening to outlandish proposals and opening up to unanticipated possibilities expands agreements opportunities.
3. Be fair. If people feel a process is fair, they are more likely to make real commitments and are less likely to walk away.
4. Be prepared to commit.
5. Be an active listener. Focus on what others say, both their words and their underlying meaning.
6. Be conscious of the importance of the relationship.
7. Be aware of BATNAs (Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement).
8. Be prepared. Study the interests and BATNAs of every possible party.

I recently completed a survey to analyze my problem solving profile. This is based on a research-based instrument named Basadur which has been developed from fundamental theory and empirical data from a large sample of people working in a broad cross-section of organizations.

In short, four categories are identified, bearing in mind that everyone is a blend of of these:

• Generator
• Conceptualizer
• Optimizer
• Implementer

Ideally, a heterogeneous mix of all four styles should be present in any organization in order to create balanced teams capable of tackling tasks from problem finding through implementation.

The research shows that certain industries or roles have a higher component in one of these categories. For instance, an artist or school teacher rates high in Generating, a scientist or strategic planner in Conceptualizing and an engineer or IT analyst in Optimizing. Turns out that a Project Manager typically rates high in Implemeting, and this is precisely the result I obtained upon completing the survey. An implementer is caracterized by the following traits (extracted from Basadur files):

• Enjoys getting things done and becoming involved in new experiences
• Excels in adapting to specific immediate circumstances to “make things work somehow"
• When the theory does not fit the facts, will discard the theory
• Likes to try things out rather than “mentally test” them
• Dislikes apathy and unmotivated people
• A risk taker: doesn’t need to completely understand something before taking action
• Willing to try as many approaches as necessary until one is found that is sufficiently acceptable to those affected by the problem
• Enthusiastic and at ease with people, but can appear impatient or even “pushy” in moving to action
• Interests in gaining acceptance and action

Thus, if you are a Project Manager, it is highly likely that Implementation is your most prominent problem solving trait.