The pitfalls of group decision-making: lessons from Jared Diamond’s Collapse

 

Ah, the thrill of decision-making in project management! The excitement, the brainstorming sessions, the camaraderie—and occasionally, the spectacular failures. As I recently delved into Jared Diamond’s Collapse, I was struck by his masterful analysis of how groups stumble into failure. In Chapter 14, Diamond outlines four categories of decision-making pitfalls that resonate deeply with our modern project challenges.

Let’s take a tour through these categories, illustrated by historical examples from his book and mirrored by some contemporary project misadventures.

1. Failing to anticipate a problem

In Collapse, Diamond discusses how the Norse in Greenland failed to anticipate the Little Ice Age. They stuck to their European farming methods despite the changing climate, which ultimately led to their downfall. Fast forward to our era, and think of the blockbuster flop that was Google Glass. The product team, dazzled by the tech’s potential, didn’t anticipate consumer privacy concerns and the social stigma of being a “Glasshole.” Just like the Norse, they stuck to their vision, blind to the gathering storm.

2. Failing to perceive a problem

Diamond points out the classic case of the Easter Island civilization, which didn’t perceive the long-term consequences of deforestation. They chopped down every tree, oblivious to the environmental collapse it would trigger. A modern echo of this is the infamous Boeing 737 Max debacle. Despite internal warnings and obvious design flaws, Boeing failed to perceive—or at least acknowledge—the gravity of the problem until it was too late, resulting in tragic crashes and a costly grounding of the fleet.

3. Failing to try to solve the problem

The classic Maya civilization, another of Diamond's examples, saw environmental degradation and political strife but failed to address these issues effectively. Contemporary parallel? Think of Blockbuster. They saw the rise of digital streaming but chose to ignore it, clinging to their brick-and-mortar model until Netflix and other streaming services had eaten their lunch. It wasn’t that they didn’t perceive the problem; they simply didn’t try to adapt in time.

4. Failing to solve the problem successfully

Lastly, Diamond discusses the example of the Soviet irrigation projects in Central Asia that led to the Aral Sea disaster. They recognized the problem and tried to address water scarcity, but their solutions were catastrophic, turning the sea into a toxic desert. A modern-day counterpart would be the development of the F-35 fighter jet. Despite massive investment and numerous attempts to address its issues, the project has been plagued by cost overruns and technical failures, making it one of the most controversial military projects today.

In conclusion, decision-making is as much about avoiding pitfalls as it is about seizing opportunities. By reflecting on historical and contemporary examples of failed group decisions, we can learn to navigate the complexities of our own projects with a bit more savvy—and perhaps a dash of humility. So, the next time you’re in a meeting and someone says, “What could possibly go wrong?” just remember: quite a lot, actually.