Autonomous vehicles: when 90% done means nowhere near ready
1. The Promise: reimagining mobilityFor decades, the idea of autonomous vehicles has captured the imagination of engineers, policymakers, and society at large. At its core, the vision is compelling: a world where mobility is seamless, efficient, and largely invisible. In such a future, commuting time is reclaimed. Cars become extensions of our living or working spaces rather than tools requiring constant attention. Ownership models shift dramatically: vehicles no longer sit idle 95% of the time but operate continuously, transporting passengers, then repositioning themselves autonomously. Urban landscapes evolve: fewer parking spaces, less congestion, and a more efficient use of public space. The promise extends beyond convenience. Autonomous systems hold the potential to drastically reduce human error (the leading cause of road accidents!) thereby improving safety outcomes at scale. It is, in every sense, a transformative vision. And for a time, it felt imminent. 2. The Reality: understanding levels of autonomyTo understand where we stand, it is essential to ground the discussion in the standardized classification of driving automation, ranging from Level 0 (no automation) to Level 5 (full autonomy).
In reality, most commercially available systems, including those from Tesla, operate at Level 2, despite frequent public perception suggesting otherwise. Meanwhile, companies like Waymo have achieved Level 4 capabilities in tightly controlled environments. However, the leap to Level 5 remains elusive. Notably, for over a decade, industry leaders have suggested that full autonomy was “just around the corner.” Yet, year after year, that milestone has remained out of reach. 3. The 90–10 Problem: when progress stalls at the finish lineThis gap between expectation and reality can be understood through the lens of the “90–10 problem,” a well-known engineering principle often cited in discussions of complex systems. The principle is deceptively simple: The first 90% of a project often takes 10% of the time, while the final 10% consumes the remaining 90%. In the context of autonomous vehicles, the industry has largely solved the “easy” part: structured environments, predictable conditions, controlled variables. This is the world of highways, clear weather, and well-marked roads. The remaining 10% is where complexity explodes:
From a project management perspective, this is where traditional planning often breaks down. Linear assumptions fail. Marginal gains become exponentially expensive. And the definition of “done” becomes increasingly ambiguous. 4. The Downfall: when optimism meets realityBetween roughly 2015 and 2020, the autonomous vehicle space experienced a surge of optimism. Capital flowed freely, timelines were aggressive, and the narrative was clear: full autonomy was imminent. Reality, however, had other plans. From 2021 onwards, a noticeable shift occurred. Several major players scaled back or exited the race altogether:
5. The Deeper Insight: when knowledge outpaces technologyAt a conceptual level, the autonomous vehicle journey highlights a broader strategic misalignment, one that can be framed through a simple but powerful lens: the relationship between knowledge and technological readiness. This dynamic is often captured in frameworks that map what we know versus what we can reliably build, similar in spirit to technology maturity models such as Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs), where theoretical understanding can significantly outpace real-world deployment capability. In this case, the industry possessed:
Closing ReflectionThe story of autonomous vehicles is not one of failure but of premature certainty. It is a case study in how ambitious projects evolve:
And in project management, as in engineering, that last 10% is where the real work begins. |
Project Management hits all the right notes. Lessons from “We are the world”
| In January 1985, a groundbreaking project brought together 46 of the most famous musicians in the world to record We are the world, a charity single to aid famine relief in Africa. Among the participants were icons like Stevie Wonder, Diana Ross, Bruce Springsteen, Ray Charles, Bob Dylan, Tina Turner, and Cyndi Lauper.
The power of a great sponsor No project succeeds without a strong sponsor, and Quincy Jones played this role to perfection. As the producer, Jones managed the project’s vision, coordinated logistics, and ensured the group stayed focused. He wielded influence, respect, and clarity to align the egos and energies of the artists. His ability to navigate the creative chaos while keeping the big picture in mind was pivotal in translating the project’s vision into reality. Adherence to timelines The stakes were high: the entire recording had to be completed in a single night, immediately following the American Music Awards. With a tight schedule and a studio filled with superstars, there was no room for delays. Strict planning and coordination ensured the recording was completed on time without compromising quality. This showcases how clear deadlines, coupled with disciplined execution, can keep even the most complex projects on track. Stakeholder management and servant leadership Managing an ensemble of superstars required diplomacy and servant leadership, qualities embodied by Lionel Richie and Michael Jackson. Both leaders prioritized the collective goal over personal glory, fostering a collaborative environment. A sign in the studio famously read, “Check your ego at the door,” setting the tone for teamwork. Another example of humility came during the chorus: participants who couldn’t reach the high notes simply remained silent. This act of knowing and respecting one’s limits reinforced the principle that projects succeed when individuals contribute according to their strengths. Allowing the right person to perform each task ensured the final output was harmonious and polished. Change and scope management During the session, Stevie Wonder suggested incorporating African lyrics into the song. While the idea aligned with the theme, it posed risks to the project’s scope and messaging. After careful deliberation, the team clarified that We are the world was not just about Africa but a global call to action for everyone to help Africa. By revisiting the project’s purpose, they honored the spirit of collaboration while maintaining focus, showcasing exemplary scope management. A blueprint for future success Beyond its immediate impact, We are the world inspired other successful humanitarian efforts, such as Do they know it's Christmas? and Live Aid. The project demonstrated that well-managed collaboration could create lasting change, extending its influence beyond its original ambition. Key takeaways The success of We are the world was driven by great sponsorship, strict adherence to timelines, servant leadership, and effective scope management. These principles remind project managers to respect their teams, leverage individual strengths, and remain adaptable under pressure. As the song reminds us, “We’re saving our own lives.” Project management is about making the critical choices that lead to transformative results. Let’s aim to make every project we lead as impactful as this unforgettable collaboration. |
Spearheaded by Lionel Richie and Michael Jackson, and produced by Quincy Jones, the project achieved extraordinary success: over 20 million copies sold, more than $63 million raised, and a song that continues to inspire humanitarian efforts. This success was made possible by exceptional project management that transformed a star-studded gathering into a unified and impactful initiative.
