Autonomous Systems
From the Emerging Technologies Blog
by Kevin Coleman
UPDATED MAY 2020 - This blog will appear monthly from now on. Today, all organizations depend on technological innovation in order to sustain their existence. Analysis of emerging technologies and identification of those technologies with the greatest potential is essential to being prepared for upcoming projects. The objective of this blog is to establish future oriented technology analysis and insights. This blog was established to provide program and project managers with information about these emerging technologies. These emerging technologies have far reaching repercussions for program and project managers. This blog will jump-start the learning process and allow program and project managers to become proactive.
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Autonomous systems (AS) are another accelerating segment of the emerging technology marketplace in the next few years. The majority of the information under this heading relates to vehicles, but has expanded beyond that! Estimates of the autonomous vehicle (sometimes referred to as self-driving vehicle) market is projected to grow to between 30% and 35% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2019 to 2025. This would put the 2025 global market value of between $10 and $13 billion USD.
The overall autonomous vehicle market takes advantage of multiple emerging technologies and heavily relies on GPS, artificial intelligence, 3D imaging, LIDAR and RADAR, and advanced sensor technology to properly operate and guide the vehicles. Consider the increased complexity of programs and projects that have to integrate all those technologies and has life and safety at risk!
It should also be considered that this subject matter also includes an interesting development around digital communications networks. Autonomous Networks is considered by many as the ‘Future of Networking.’ It is the combination and integration of software-defined networks and automated network management capabilities. These capabilities completely integrate and automate self-operating digital communications networks. Autonomous Networks (AN) is a group of networks under mutual administration that share/coordinate the same routing methodologies, techniques and other functional aspects to produce a seamless operating environment. AN uses an internal gateway protocol and common metrics to properly and efficiently route packets within the AN and typically uses an external gateway protocol to interoperate with and route packets to other networks and or systems.
It is also worth mentioning that another AS segment exists. It is autonomous buildings sometimes referred to as SMART buildings. This specific segment is expected to grow with a CAGR of between 30% and 35% and top $20 billion by 2025. There are some estimates that put this market value over $100 billion by that year. One has to wonder where we will get all the construction workers and technical staff for this much activity. This will likely create more projects with a shortage of properly skilled resources!
Once again, another emerging technology, Autonomous Systems (et-all), has a huge potential that is now dawning and rapidly becoming a much larger part of today’s environment with significant impact on nearly all multiple parts of the daily lives of all of us. Like the other emerging technologies covered under this blog, it deserves regular monitoring from now until it becomes common throughout the world.
Posted on: April 15, 2020 12:59 PM |
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Comments (6)
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Mark Markowitz
Project Executive| Independent Consultants
Ontario, Canada
It seems that most recently, more and more companies are adding their intelligent products and services under this heading and that has begun to blur the true autonomous systems market/segment.
Kevin Coleman
Subject Matter Expert, Author, Speaker and Strategic Advisor| - Insights
Pa, United States
@ Mark - I would have to agree with you. This segment gets broader and broader each and every month. The question is - have a general heading of AS with vehicles, networks and other subsets or break them out into their own categories? Only time will answer that question I believe.
Tiago Romao
Project Manager - PfMP | PgMP | PMP | ACP | PBA | CBAP | CSM | MSc.| Altice Portugal | Meo
Sobreda, Setubal/Almada, Portugal
Besides sensors autonomous systems are dependent on wireless and power technology advances.
5G will be a big push, enabling many Gbps transmission over air.
Autonomous systems/vehicles on land, air and water, are one of the many new use cases 5G will enable.
Meanwhile, 5G rollouts delayed due to covid19, projects onhold or even suspended.
In the beginning 5G will be mostly enhancing "as is" products and services, larger throughput, lower latency. It will take time, 2 to 4 years after rollout, to see 5G physically and functionality integrated in upcoming systems
Kevin Coleman
Subject Matter Expert, Author, Speaker and Strategic Advisor| - Insights
Pa, United States
@ Tiago - recent Congressional testimony about 5G here in the U.S. showed some SHOCKING data. We have a shortage of over 20,000 tower technicians. They are the ones that install all the new 5G equipment to bring this technological advancement into reality. Given that plus the 2 to 4 year after roll-out figure you referenced, my guess is that 5G as a reality across the majority of the U.S. will not happen until 2030. That's a fairly substantial delay :-(
Tiago Romao
Project Manager - PfMP | PgMP | PMP | ACP | PBA | CBAP | CSM | MSc.| Altice Portugal | Meo
Sobreda, Setubal/Almada, Portugal
@Kevin i bet it will be sooner.
5G is game changer. I guess US operators will not come much after europe.
On this article, US operators already have the radio interface in place :- https://www.lifewire.com/5g-availability-us-4155914
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