Project success... predicted?

 

I recently came across an attention-grabbing paper titled “Dance hit song prediction”. In this research, the authors developed a predictive model to evaluate the likelihood of a new tune making it to the chart’s Top 10. For that purpose, a vast database containing dance hit songs from 1985 to 2013 was built; attributes such as tempo, duration, loudness, energy and danceability were measured. Amazingly enough, the model showed a success predictability of more than 70%!

Could a homologous predictive model for project success be successfully developed (pun intended)? In a world that spends $48 trillion every year on projects, a success ratio of only 35% is not acceptable (data published by the Standish group). Invigorating the success rate is not a trivial task. Before a model can be developed - not in the scope of this humble article - it is indispensable to identify the key parameters that play a role in project success.

The list below captures my Top 10:

1. Familiarity of the performing organization with similar projects. Certainly, one can expect a decreasing success rate with increasing project complexity and/or uncertainty.
2. Strength of business case and association of the project with a higher purpose. Broadly put, projects are initiated to exploit opportunities or to solve issues. The project's ultimate purpose must be summarized in a concise statement agreed upon by all stakeholders.
3. Alignment of the project within the performing organization strategy. Although projects are conceived and executed in a dynamic world (the infamous VUCA acronym), this should not be used as an excuse for accepting chaos. Some projects will need to be cancelled and others are swerved to the fast lane. Whichever case, the decisions must be consistently aligned with the organization's overall strategy.
4. Commitment from the project sponsor and the rest of the project team. The role of the sponsor is critical and goes beyond funding the project. In fact, the sponsor must challenge, support and steer the project. Sponsoring a countless number of projects at a time is inefficient and can lead to delays and frustration. 
5. Selection and usage of appropriate and meaningful project performance indicators. Think of Einstein when defining KPIs; he wrote, "If you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid".
6. Organizational set-up (for example, siloed vs. non-siloed). Companies are gradually shifting towards non-siloed fluid structures with more room for interaction and shorter communication lines. This pragmatic way of working allows frequent feedback from project stakeholders and can significantly contribute to its success.
7. Resource availability & competencies. The management of projects is all about people: people are key! For the sake of success, it is essential to understand that a higher variance - people involved in several projects at a time - will take a toll on project success.
8. Truthfulness and accuracy of project schedule and budget. Even agile projects have plans, albeit susceptible to frequent change or pivoting.
9. Availability of a project management plan or its subsidiaries, depending on project size and inner project characteristics (communication plan, risk management plan, etc.). Like Benjamin Franklin wrote, "Fail to plan and you are planning to fail". 
10. Clarity in project deliverables. The image below describes this well:

Do all ten items above have similar weights or is Pareto playing a role? Are there other factors missing? Have your saying in the comments section below.