Guessing is not a strategy: How to build decision velocity with AI and real-time data
June 10, 2026 | Live Webinar
I’ve been thinking recently about the role of intuition in project management. We often rely on the data, processes and logical structure of project management, but if you’re anything like me, you’ve probably spent more than one afternoon feeling that something just isn’t quite right and wondering how you can define the problem when you just can’t put your finger on it.
It’s a sense that something’s off. Maybe a project is veering off track, or a team member isn’t quite clicking with the rest of the group, but there’s nothing tangible to fully explain why. Maybe a stakeholder seems hesitant to commit, or you sense the team’s morale is low, even if the status reporting is telling you everything is on track. These things might not be much today, but they might cause bigger problems in the future.
That’s where intuition often comes into play. It’s often said that project management is part art and part science, and the intuition part is definitely not science! But the art is where we navigate the complex, human part of the job.
Managing uncertainty
So much of what we do as project managers is working in an uncertain environment. It’s juggling all the facts and then applying what feels right, while sticking to the boundaries and governance structure – just writing that out makes me feel it’s a balancing act. And one we don’t always get right!
A lot of what we do as project managers is solving problems, or helping teams solve problems, and the kinds of problems my teams are faced with today feel stickier and more intertwined than the projects of 10 years ago. No matter how careful the planning, there are unforeseen challenges. And that’s where intuition steps in. It helps connect the dots between facts, previous experience and what we know will work, which is handy if you don’t have lots of time to solutionise.
Experience shapes intuition
How much do gut feelings play when you are faced with an uncertain situation? And how much are those gut feelings influenced by the years of experience and knowledge of corporate strategy and conversations with your sponsor? Probably more than we acknowledge.
We must internalise all the things to do with project context, plus all our lessons learned experience on the way, and so while it feels like we’re making a decision based on gut feeling or intuition, isn’t it really a decision shaped by professional practice and experience? (Or is that the same thing?)
Experience feeds our intuition and guides us when the situation is high-pressure or the decision is woolly. The more experience you have, the better your instincts tend to be – and not just in project management but across all facets of life generally. It’s a deep understanding of your environment and how people and processes play together. You’ve seen it happen before, either on your own project or someone else’s, or you’ve read about it or heard a conference presentation. All these things contribute to your ability to act instinctively. They inform your decision-making, creating a kind of ‘mental database’ that helps you respond more quickly and effectively when things don’t go as planned. Which is quite often, on projects!
Let process lead
We can’t manage everything on feelings, the project management process is there for a reason. However, we can’t help but manage a little bit on instinct and experience as well. The more experience you have, the easier it is to trust your gut. But as we say at work, trust but verify. Once you’ve got a sense of where you feel you should be going, check in with that reluctant stakeholder, or ask the team about how they are feeling. Get tangible data where you can to back up what you instinctively know, and go from there.
Posted on: March 10, 2025 09:00 AM |
Permalink