Categories: , Agile, Agile Estimation, Agile Uprising, Forecasting, Poker Planning, Probabilistic Forecasting, Release Planning, Scrum, Story Points, Troy Lightfoot
Trying to figure out when you will be ready to ship is incredibly challenging. Many Scrum teams track historic velocity, or story points completed in a Sprint, and then use the average number of points completed per Sprint as a way of making an educated guess as to when they could deliver when they’d expect to deliver a certain number of story points in the future. There are, however, many who feel that this approach is no better than just making a completely random guess, and there is evidence to support the value in taking a different approach.
In this episode of The Reluctant Agilist, Troy Lightfoot explains his approach to Probabilistic Forecasting, what it is, why it matters, and how it is a better way of planning than using a more traditional approach.
Books Recommended In the Podcast
- Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability - Dan Vacanti
- When will it be done? - Dan Vacanti
- Principle of Product of Development Flow - Don Reinterson
Tools mentioned in the podcast
- Throughput and cycle time calculator: http://focusedobjective.com/free-tools-resources/
- Actionable Agile http://actionableagile.com
- Agile Uprising http://agileuprising.com