Project Management

Probabilistic Forecasting with Troy Lightfoot

From the The Reluctant Agilist Blog
by
Adam Weisbart | Agile | Agile 2013 | agile 2014 | agile 2015 | Agile 2017 | Agile 2018 | Agile Alliance | agile coaching | Agile Estimation | Agile for Humans | Agile Metrics | Agile Practice | Agile Teams | agile transformation | Agile Transition | Agile Uprising | agile2014 | agile2015 | agile42 | Agilistocrats | Alistair Cockburn | Atlassian | autism | Bas Vodde | BigVIsible | Bob Tarne | book review | Brian Bozzuto | business agility | carson pierce | Center for Non-Violent Communication | Certification | Certified Scrum Master | Certified Scrum Product Owner | Change | change management | Chet Hendrickson | Chris Li | Christine Converse | Coaching | commitment | Communication | conteneo | Craig Larman | cross functional teams | CSM | CSPO | DAD | Daniel Gullo | Dave Prior | David Anderson | David Bernstein | David Bland | David J Anderson | Dhaval Panchal | diana larsen | Digital Agency | Digital PM | digitalpm | Disciplined Agile | Disciplined Agile Delivery | Distributed Teams | Don Kim | dpm | dpm2013 | drunken PM | drunken pm radio | drunkenpm | drunkenpm radio | eduscrum | emotional intelligence | empathy | Enterprise Agile | Essential Scrum | esther derby | Excella | Fixing Your Scrum | Gangplank | Gil Broza | Howard Sublett | Individuals and Interactions | Jean Tabaka | Jeff Sutherland | Jesse Fewell | Jessie Shternshus | jim benson | johanna rothman | john miller | Jukka Lindstrom | Jutta Eckstein | kanban | Kanban Pad | kanbanfor1 | Ken Rubin | Kenny Rubin | Kim Brainard | lacey | Language | Large Scale Scrum | Larry Maccherone | Leadership | LeadingAgile | lean | Lean Coffee | Lean Kanban North America | LeanKit | LESS | lkna | luke hohmann | lyssa adkins | Maria Matarelli | Mark Kilby | Marshall Rosenberg | Melissa Boggs | Michael Sahota | Mike Vizdos | Modern Management Methods | modus cooperandi | Modus Institute | Natalie Warnert | Nic Sementa | Non-violent communication | North American Global Scrum Gathering | NVC | Olaf Lewitz | ├średev | ├średev 2013 | organizational agility | Organizational Change | overcommitment | Patrice Colancecco Embry | Paul Hammond | personal kanban | personal productivity | personal project management | Peter Saddington | PMBOK | PMI | PMP | podcast | portfolio management | Product Backlog | Product Development | Product Goal | Product Owner | Product Ownership | productivity | project management | Project Management Institute | Rally | Release Planning | reluctant agilist | Renata Lerch | retrospective | Richard Cheng | Roman Pichler | Ron Jeffries | Ross Beurmann | Ryan Ripley | SAFE | Safety | Sallyann Freudenberg | scaling agile | Scaling Scrum | Scott Ambler | Scrum | Scrum Alliance | Scrum Gathering | Scrum Master | ScrumMaster | self organizing teams | SGPHX | SGPHX 2015 | Shane Hastie | social engineering | SolutionsIQ | SoundNotes | sprint planning | Team | teams | Temenos | The Improv Effect | Things | Tom Perry | Transformation | Troy Lightfoot | troy magennis | User Stories | value | Vivek Angiras | waste | Waterfall | What We Say Matters | why limit wip | women in agile | Woody Zuill | show all posts

About this Blog

RSS

Recent Posts

Tips For Engaging Big Consulting to Help You Prepare For Transformation w/ George Schlitz

ProKanban with Colleen Johnson

Knowing How to Measure Progress in Agile Transformation w/ Ross Beurmann

Disciplined Agile Certifications at PMI with Scott Ambler

Flipping Options to Change Behavior w Braden Cundiff



Trying to figure out when you will be ready to ship is incredibly challenging. Many Scrum teams track historic velocity, or story points completed in a Sprint, and then use the average number of points completed per Sprint as a way of making an educated guess as to when they could deliver when they’d expect to deliver a certain number of story points in the future. There are, however, many who feel that this approach is no better than just making a completely random guess, and there is evidence to support the value in taking a different approach. 

In this episode of The Reluctant Agilist, Troy Lightfoot explains his approach to Probabilistic Forecasting, what it is, why it matters, and how it is a better way of planning than using a more traditional approach. 

Books Recommended In the Podcast

Tools mentioned in the podcast

Agile Uprising

Contacting Troy 

Posted on: May 24, 2019 03:38 PM | Permalink

Comments (2)

Please login or join to subscribe to this item
Wow. Absolutely fantastic! Great job by you Dave to do the rewinds and pauses, Great job by Troy with his expertise and knowledge. Super interview.

Please Login/Register to leave a comment.

ADVERTISEMENTS

"Few people think more than two or three times a year; I have made an international reputation for myself by thinking once or twice a week."

- George Bernard Shaw