Here's a guest post from an aspiring young project manager, Stephen Robin, pictured below, who describes himself this way:
I am an inquisitive youth with an open mind, spontaneous brain, and an inexhaustible number of interests career and non-career related. My willingness to learn and a love of researching has formed me into an extremely curious individual that asks a lot of questions and has sparked the flame in me to discover new knowledge, experiences, places, and the like. As a lifelong learner, my interests will likely broaden in the future. Due to that, I have a huge appreciation for total person development(Holistic) and I have no intentions of slowing down. Currently, I am in my fourth year of college in which I am pursuing a Bachelor's Degree in Project Management. From my perspective, this degree is simply a running start in my career which aligns with my goal of reaching the highest level in the professional domain. With this in mind, the plan of action is to have a heavy devotion to, education, experience, and exposure where I can become an agent of change through Project Management.”
Project Management in the Animal Kingdom: Key Lessons – and Questions
We think of projects as a uniquely human thing - conceptualized (only) out of the human mind. Before it was discussed, before it came to paper, before it became a reality, any project was simply a thought. An idea. A concept. Project management, which brings those ideas to reality, is widely recognized as a practice unique to human beings, to us Homo Sapiens. Before the formation of recognized bodies or any project management intuition, before the rise of the project manager, its practice even early in human history, (whether or not it was called project management) provided lasting results we can see today The Great Pyramids, the Great Wall of China, and many others revealed that project management has been practiced since ancient times. Project management is intrinsically part of our being due to the need to create, deliver, and drive change according to our circumstances, needs, and wants.
Now, for this next part, I want you to keep an open mind. What if I told you that project management isn’t uniquely our domain and we aren’t the only practitioners in existence? Something that has been around since the beginning of mankind, is the reality of Mother Nature. Nature is home to its unique form of project managers. What I can only describe as “natural project managers” that do not follow a preset methodology, tool, or technique -non-sapient beings that were not trained, coached or enrolled in a program to acquire knowledge and gain experience. The non-sapient beings of the animal kingdom have their own form of project management; the art and science of “Instinct Project Management” or “Instinctual Project Management”. The practice of project management does not require a highly developed brain, extremely complex thought, or certifications of any kind.
Moreover, concepts that many project managers deem essential in any project are absent in the animal kingdom. For example:
A project charter
Work Breakdown Structure
Project Scope Statement
Product Scope Statement
..any sort of project documentation
Therefore you may ask, out of the many examples you may come up with in your head of projects done by the millions of species out there, which are the most mind-blowing? The projects – or at least project outcomes – below, belong to nature’s Project Management Hall of Fame:
Puffer Fish Circle- To create the patterns, the males swim along the seafloor and flap their fins. Such movements lead to the creation of beautiful circular patterns. Although the fish are only about five inches long, the formations they make measure about 7-feet in diameter. Once the patterns are made, females come to inspect them. If they are fond of the creations, they reproduce with the male that created the pattern. It is yet to be discovered what exactly the females look for in patterns or what traits they find desirable in the formation.
Below is a clip from BBC Earth that shows the project execution and outcome.
Gossamer Trees- In 2010 in Pakistan, unprecedented monsoons brought down massive rainfall. The rainfall was slow to recede and it created vast pools of stagnant water across the countryside. This led to a mass migration of spiders and insects to climb on trees forrefuge and cover them inthe cocoon of their webs. Although the cocoons led to the death of many trees, blocking sunlight from reaching the leaves, they also seemed to help trap more mosquitoes in the region, thereby reducing the risk of malaria.
Posted
by Richard Maltzman
on: March 04, 2023 11:41 AM
| Permalink |
Comments (23)
There has been much talk lately about ChatGPT and other generative AI systems, most of it centered on its ability to let students generate essays, to take journalism jobs away, to help or hurt almost every industry.
But little has been said about the net effect of these systems in terms of their impact on climate, via the increased computing power that’s needed to power such systems.
My attention to this was drawn by an article – theoretically written by a human – on Wired.com. The article is called “The Generative AI Search Race Has a Dirty Secret”. That page also provides an audio snippet of about 6 minutes, well worth a listen.
”unbound by the restrictions of common sense, readily accessible models today build on semantic relationships derived from large bodies of text, or relationships between large corpuses of text and images. The next generation of models already being built will include video and 3D modeling. Soon, we may hope to design houses by starting with phrases like “single-story mid-century modern, south facing on a forested hillside, three bedrooms”.
The article goes on to consider what happens when we (should) add elements of recycled materials, or design for lower energy use into the description of the desired building. There’s other research that indicates a positive effect for AI in terms of carbon reduction, such as this one from the World Economic Forum.
That article has the same quandary as I did when I started the “dirty secret” blog post, saying:
· By 2030, the tech could help cut global greenhouse gas emissions by 4%, according to a recent study by accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers for Microsoft.
· But there are energy consumption concerns around AI, algorithms and the processing of large amounts of data.
So… who could I ask about this? What sort of wise system could provide an answer about the net effect of generative AI systems?
Oh, I know: a generative AI system!
So I asked Chat GPT this question:
Overall, since generative AI will cause an increase in carbon footprint, yet has the potential to lower carbon footprints due to innovative design and other AI applications that reduce the carbon footprint, what do you predict will be the net effect of generative AI with respect to carbon footprint?
Here is the answer given by ChatGPT:
It's difficult to make a definitive prediction on the net effect of generative AI on carbon footprint, as it will depend on a variety of factors, including how the technology is developed and used, and the extent to which it is adopted.
On the one hand, the energy consumption required to train large-scale generative AI models can be significant, and this could contribute to an increase in carbon footprint. Additionally, if the applications of generative AI are focused on industries that are particularly carbon-intensive, such as transportation or manufacturing, then the net effect could be an increase in carbon footprint.
On the other hand, there are a number of potential applications of generative AI that could have a positive impact on carbon footprint, such as improving the efficiency of energy systems, optimizing the use of renewable energy, and helping to reduce waste and emissions. If generative AI is used in these ways, it could help to reduce carbon footprint and mitigate the effects of climate change.
Overall, it's likely that the net effect of generative AI on carbon footprint will depend on the balance between these different factors, and how the technology is developed and adopted in the coming years. It will be important for developers and policymakers to prioritize environmentally responsible applications of generative AI, and to ensure that the energy consumption associated with the technology is sustainable and powered by renewable sources.
When I asked the System specifically about the “dirty” and “clean” aspects, I got more detail:
Will generative AI increase the carbon footprint of computing?
Generative AI has the potential to increase the carbon footprint of computing, depending on how it is implemented and used.
Training a generative AI model requires significant amounts of computing power, and this can contribute to increased energy consumption and carbon emissions. In particular, large-scale models like GPT-3 require massive amounts of computational resources, including high-end hardware like graphics processing units (GPUs) and tensor processing units (TPUs), which can consume a lot of energy.
Additionally, the use of generative AI in applications like chatbots, virtual assistants, and automated content generation can also contribute to increased energy consumption if these applications are widely used and require a lot of processing power.
However, there are also efforts underway to make generative AI more energy-efficient, such as developing more efficient hardware and software algorithms. Furthermore, there is a growing interest in using renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, to power data centers where AI models are trained and hosted.
Overall, while generative AI does have the potential to increase the carbon footprint of computing, there are also measures that can be taken to mitigate its impact on the environment.
Will generative AI increase the carbon footprint of computing?
Generative AI has the potential to increase the carbon footprint of computing, depending on how it is implemented and used.
Training a generative AI model requires significant amounts of computing power, and this can contribute to increased energy consumption and carbon emissions. In particular, large-scale models like GPT-3 require massive amounts of computational resources, including high-end hardware like graphics processing units (GPUs) and tensor processing units (TPUs), which can consume a lot of energy.
Additionally, the use of generative AI in applications like chatbots, virtual assistants, and automated content generation can also contribute to increased energy consumption if these applications are widely used and require a lot of processing power.
However, there are also efforts underway to make generative AI more energy-efficient, such as developing more efficient hardware and software algorithms. Furthermore, there is a growing interest in using renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, to power data centers where AI models are trained and hosted.
Overall, while generative AI does have the potential to increase the carbon footprint of computing, there are also measures that can be taken to mitigate its impact on the environment.
Do generative AI systems have the potential to help solve the climate crisis?
Yes, generative AI systems have the potential to help solve the climate crisis in a variety of ways. Here are some examples:
Climate Modeling: Climate models are used to make predictions about the future of our planet, such as changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. Generative AI can help improve the accuracy of climate models by processing large amounts of data and identifying patterns that might be difficult for humans to detect. This can help researchers make more accurate climate predictions and identify potential solutions to mitigate the effects of climate change.
Energy Optimization: Generative AI can be used to optimize energy usage in buildings and industrial processes, reducing energy waste and greenhouse gas emissions. By analyzing data from sensors and other sources, generative AI systems can identify areas where energy use can be optimized, such as by adjusting temperature and lighting settings or identifying equipment that is consuming too much energy.
Renewable Energy: Generative AI can help optimize the deployment and management of renewable energy resources, such as solar and wind power. For example, AI systems can predict energy production from solar panels based on weather patterns, helping to better integrate solar power into the grid and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
Carbon Capture: Carbon capture technology involves capturing carbon dioxide emissions from industrial processes and storing them underground. Generative AI can help optimize the design of carbon capture systems, making them more efficient and cost-effective.
Overall, generative AI systems have the potential to help solve the climate crisis by providing more accurate climate modeling, optimizing energy usage, facilitating the deployment and management of renewable energy resources, and improving the efficiency of carbon capture technology. However, it's important to ensure that the development and use of AI systems are done in a way that is environmentally responsible and sustainable.
What do you (humans) think? What role do project managers play? What role do project LEADERS play? Personally, I think it’s a big, important role, and it all starts (as did this post) with asking the right questions. Please comment, if possible, without using ChatGPT, but if you do, say how you used it!
Three project management professors, Ros Lishman, Nigel Williams and Rich Maltzman, have a non-profit video podcast called PM WorldSavers. We've had a few episodes so far in which we interview leaders of programs and projects that are determined to make a difference - a positive difference in our lives and on the environment.
Last week, and in line with my last post, we had - and recorded - a casual conversation on how ChatGPT can be viewed, used, feared, or not feared, from the perspective of educators of project leaders. It's a pseudo-episode of PM Worldsavers.
I'm sharing it here since there is so much 'buzz' on ChatGPT and other AI systems. This is an interesting angle in and of itself and you can, from this conversation, gain some insight as to how we are considering it.
Many of us are hearing about ChatGPT and its impact on the world. This morning I read an article about ChatGPT writing real-estate postings. The agents are wowed by the results. I thought I'd try it out, so I made some real-estate available in my schedule and logged in.
While by no means perfect, the system is scary-good. This brings up a whole bunch of ethical issues especially with respect to education. That's not in scope for this post. Here, I want to share with you the result of a conversation (that's the best way to put it) with ChatGPT about Sustainability in Project Management. Then I want to conclude by letting you see how it insulted me at the end of the conversation.
I asked a series of questions in a variety of formats to ChatGPT. The real art and science of dealing with it is how you engage it in conversation. Yes, you can say, "write an essay about General Lafayette" and it will do that, but you get more thoughtful answers if you frame your questions more creatively.
Let me start with one that absolutely amazed me. I asked it to compare two project managers' results based on their approach to sustainability thinking:
Two project managers are working on large IT projects. One spends extra time and effort assuring that the project will have a more responsible, ecologically-sound long-term result, and overspends the budget and brings the project in a bit late. The other project manager focuses on the budget and stays under the budget, and delivers the project on time, but does not consider the project's outcome in its steady state. Compare the two projects.
It almost sounds like a PMP(R) question stem, doesn't it? Anyway, here's how ChatGPT answered it:
A comparison between the two projects would consider both the short-term and long-term outcomes. The first project manager, who focused on a responsible, ecologically-sound outcome, may have overspent the budget and brought the project in a bit late. However, the long-term benefits of a more sustainable project may outweigh the initial costs and delay. The project's positive impact on the environment, reputation, and stakeholder satisfaction can lead to increased support and profits in the future.
On the other hand, the second project manager who focused only on the budget and delivered the project on time may have saved costs in the short-term. However, if the project has a negative impact on the environment or stakeholders, it could lead to decreased support and financial losses in the long run.
In conclusion, while staying within the budget is important, it should not be the sole focus of a project manager. A balanced approach that considers both short-term and long-term outcomes, including sustainability, is crucial for the success of a project in the long run.
Pretty, pretty, pretty, good, n'est pas?
I went on to ask some other questions in different ways, and although not perfect, nor even totally consistent, there is wisdom (drawn, I think, from human minds) here. Have a look at the rest of the conversation (I will use italics for my question and purple text for the answers):
Why should a project manager care what happens after the project is complete?
A project manager should care about what happens after the project is complete for several reasons:
Reputation and legacy - The impact of the project after completion can affect the reputation of the project manager and their organization.
Stakeholder satisfaction - The long-term outcomes of the project can impact stakeholders' satisfaction and their perception of the project's success.
Future opportunities - The success of the project in the long term can impact future opportunities for the project manager and their organization.
Continuous improvement - Understanding the long-term outcomes of the project can inform future improvements and best practices in project management.
Ethical considerations - It is important to consider the impact of a project on the environment and society, and take a responsible and ethical approach to project management.
Return on investment - Consideration of the long-term outcomes of a project can help maximize the return on investment and ensure that the project delivers value over the long term.
By considering the long-term outcomes of a project, a project manager can demonstrate their commitment to responsible and effective project management, and ensure that the project delivers positive outcomes for all stakeholders.
As a project manager, can you give examples of projects where failing to consider the long-term caused problems after the project was handed over to operations?
Yes, here are some examples of projects where failing to consider the long-term caused problems after the project was handed over to operations:
Infrastructure projects - If long-term maintenance and sustainability were not considered, the infrastructure may quickly become outdated or fall into disrepair, resulting in increased costs and decreased performance.
Software development projects - If the software was not designed to be scalable, adaptable, or maintainable, it may become obsolete or difficult to maintain after the project is complete, resulting in increased costs and decreased efficiency.
Environmental projects - If the long-term impact of the project on the environment was not considered, the project may result in negative consequences such as soil erosion, water pollution, or loss of biodiversity.
Energy projects - If the long-term costs of energy production and distribution were not considered, the project may result in increased costs, decreased efficiency, and negative environmental impacts.
Construction projects - If the long-term durability, maintainability, and sustainability of the structure were not considered, the project may result in increased costs for repairs and maintenance, decreased functionality, and negative environmental impacts.
In all of these cases, considering the long-term outcomes of the project could have prevented these problems and ensured that the project delivered positive outcomes over the long term.
As someone who wants to convey the importance of thinking long-term to an audience of project managers, can you give three examples of disastrous projects in which failing to consider the long-term led to problems?
Yes, here are three examples of disastrous projects where failing to consider the long-term led to problems:
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill - The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is a prime example of how failing to consider the long-term consequences of a project can have disastrous effects. The oil spill caused severe environmental damage, economic losses, and harm to human health and safety.
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster - The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in Japan was another example of the consequences of failing to consider the long-term implications of a project. The disaster resulted in significant environmental contamination, economic losses, and harm to human health and safety.
Oroville Dam Crisis - The Oroville Dam crisis in California is a prime example of how failing to consider the long-term maintenance and sustainability of a project can result in disaster. The crisis resulted in significant damage to the dam, evacuation of nearby residents, and significant economic losses.
These examples demonstrate the importance of considering the long-term outcomes of a project and taking a responsible and proactive approach to project management, to ensure that the project delivers positive outcomes over the long term and does not result in disastrous consequences.
Is there value for a project manager to think beyond the end date of their project?
Yes, there is significant value for a project manager to think beyond the end date of their project. Some of the key benefits of thinking long-term include:
Improved project outcomes: By considering the long-term implications of a project, project managers can ensure that the final product is aligned with the organization's overall goals and objectives.
Better stakeholder management: When project managers consider the long-term impact of their projects, they can identify and address stakeholder needs and concerns more effectively.
Increased sustainability: By considering the long-term sustainability of the project's product, project managers can ensure that it is environmentally responsible and has a positive impact on the community.
Better resource allocation: When project managers think beyond the end of their projects, they can make informed decisions about resource allocation that will help ensure that the project has a positive long-term impact.
Increased reputation: Project managers who demonstrate a commitment to long-term thinking are likely to be seen as responsible and capable, which can enhance their reputation and that of their organization.
Overall, considering the long-term implications of a project can help project managers deliver more effective and sustainable outcomes, and increase the likelihood of success for their projects.
Thinking as a program manager or PMO director who wants to help project managers think in the long term, what roadblocks exist to this effort?
As a program manager or PMO director, the following roadblocks may exist in the effort to encourage long-term thinking amongst project managers:
Short-term focus of organizational culture and leadership
Pressure to deliver projects within tight deadlines and budgets
Lack of understanding of the benefits of long-term thinking
Limited resources and skills to support long-term planning
Resistance to change from project managers and other stakeholders
Inadequate communication and collaboration between project and program teams
Lack of incentives and recognition for considering long-term outcomes
Insufficient training and development opportunities for project managers
Difficulty in measuring and demonstrating the impact of long-term thinking
Overcoming these roadblocks requires a strategic approach, including leadership support, communication and collaboration, training and development, and the development of metrics and incentives to support long-term thinking.
Next, I got personal. I asked ChatGPT if it had an environmental impact:
What is the environmental impact of ChatGPT?
The environmental impact of ChatGPT is primarily associated with the energy consumption and carbon emissions associated with running the vast amounts of computer hardware required to train and run the model. This energy usage contributes to climate change, a major environmental issue. It is important for organizations using AI technology to consider energy-efficient practices and sustainable energy sources in their operations.
Then, I got personal from my side:
Who is Richard Maltzman?
I am not aware of any notable person by the name of Richard Maltzman.
OK, ChatGPT, well, then, fine, I am not aware of any notable person by the name of ChatGPT! But I am now aware that this is going to have an impact on search technology, research, education, and (despite its closing slap in my face), a pretty good understanding of how sustainability connects with project management!
What are your thoughts? No fair asking ChatGPT. I want your actual thoughts.
stellarator pic: 2: A schematic classical stellarator, figure courtesy of C. Brandt
In the prior post, I discussed the recent breakthrough at Lawrence Livermore Labs regarding a ‘net gain’ event in the development of fusion power. You can go back to Part 1, or alternatively let one of my favorite people, Neil deGrasse Tyson review the breakthrough – see video below.
As promised at the end of Part 1, here I will talk more about the mysterious Tokamak, a rival technology called the Stellarator, and about the private companies that are working on projects to be first to reach commercial viability, and most pragmatically, the opportunities (jobs, careers) that already abound and will continue to grow for project leaders.
The Tokamak
The Tokamak – sounding to me like a word from Aleut, is actually a sort of acronym from the Russian words (Toroidalnaya Kamera i Magnitnaya Katushka)(in Cyrillic - Тороидальная Камера и Магнитная Катушка) which effectively means toroidal magnetic chamber or confinement) was developed in the mid-1960s by Soviet physicists. It can produce some of the highest plasma temperatures, densities, and confinement durations of any confinement device. As a reminder from Part 1, plasma is ‘the fourth state of matter’. It’s a gas in which many of its particles are ionized, meaning they have lost or gained electrons. Plasma is found in many stars, lightning, and some types of flames. You are seeing light emitted by plasma when you look at an illuminated neon sign.
A tokamak is a machine that confines a plasma using magnetic fields in a donut shape that scientists call a torus. Fusion energy scientists believe that tokamaks are the leading plasma confinement concept for future fusion power plants. In a tokamak, magnetic field coils confine plasma particles to allow the plasma to achieve the conditions necessary for fusion. One set of magnetic coils generates an intense “toroidal” field, directed the long way around the torus. A central solenoid (a magnet that carries electric current) creates a second magnetic field directed along the “poloidal” direction, the short way around the torus. The two field components result in a twisted magnetic field that confines the particles in the plasma. A third set of field coils generates an outer poloidal field that shapes and positions the plasma.
The first tokamak, T-1, began operation in Russia in 1958. Subsequent advances led to the construction of the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Joint European Torus in England, both of which achieved record fusion power in the 1990s. These successes motivated 35 nations to collaborate on the superconducting ITER tokamak (covered in Part 1), which aims to explore the physics of burning plasmas.
But the Tokamak has a challenger – the Stellarator. Here’s an outstanding video that reveals the beauty of the Stellarator – which literally is a quite twisted idea:
The Stellarator
And here, again courtesy of the US Department of Energy, is a better explanation of the Stellarator than I could ever give you:
Fusion power may be able to provide the world with safe, clean, and renewable power. The stellarator is one of the technologies scientists believe could lead to real-world fusionpower. A stellarator is a machine that uses magnetic fields to confine plasma in the shape of a donut, called a torus. These magnetic fields allow scientists to control the plasma particles and create the right conditions for fusion reactions. Stellarators use extremely strong electromagnets to generate twisting magnetic fields that wrap the long way around the donut shape.
Stellarators have several advantages over tokamaks, the other main technology that scientists are exploring for fusion power. Stellarators require less injected power to sustain the plasma, have greater design flexibility, and allow for simplification of some aspects of plasma control. However, these benefits come at the cost of increased complexity, especially for the magnetic field coils.
To advance Stellarator design, scientists have turned to high performance computingand state-of-the-art plasma theory. These tools have helped researchers optimize the Helically Symmetric Experiment (HSX) stellarator in Wisconsin and the Wendelstein 7-X stellarator in Germany.
As a side note, I have been increasingly interested in AI-based research, including ChatGPT (and GPTZero, which can detect AI-generated text). So I asked ChatGPT to tell me the difference between a Stellarator and a Tokamak.
From ChatGPT
A stellarator and a tokamak are both devices used to confine and heat plasma in order to create conditions suitable for nuclear fusion, but they use different methods to achieve this. A tokamak uses magnetic fields to confine the plasma in a toroidal (doughnut-shaped) shape, while a stellarator uses a complex arrangement of magnetic coils to create a similar confinement. In general, tokamaks are simpler and more widely used, but stellarators have the potential to be more stable and efficient.
The good news: The answer generated by AI was good. The better news – as an educator, we can tell whether or not an essay or essay segement is generated by AI:
GPTZero was able to determine: Your text is most likely to be AI generated!
Now back to what this means to project leaders...
What does this mean for project leaders?
One word: Opportunities!
I did a little research on two companies that are working on Stellarator versions of fusion power: GeneralFusion in Canada and Helion in the USA. Aside from the project management job opportunities in the research area, there are jobs blossoming in the commercialization of fusion power as well. Here’s an example from General Fusion:
Prioritize and assign tasks, oversee project logistics and resource allocation.
Assume a leadership role in defining projects, test plans and design of experiments whilst collecting test requirements and constraints from numerous stakeholders.
Create project schedules and work with team members to ensure they are met.
Participate in hiring and training of qualified staff.
Act as a mentor to junior team members.
Collaborate across multiple teams; communicate effectively to ensure team efforts are aligned with priorities and evolving requirements.
The DOE recently sponsored a conference and there are several downloads of presentations about the PPPs (Public-Private Partnerships) underway in the fusion area. Click here for those downloads.
Of course, many of these jobs are going to want technical knowledge in the area. You won’t necessarily have to be a nuclear scientist, but it would help to build some knowledge in the area. These two blog posts are not the answer, certainly not in and of themselves! But they may tickle your interest in the topic – and that’s a start.
Posted
by 
