Project Management

Weather is not Climate. But they're linked - ask Helene.

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As I write this post, Hurricane Helene is 1 hour away from landfall in Florida as a Category 4 storm. While hurricanes are ‘weather’  events and not climate, the intensity of storms has increased.

I draw your attention to this article from the BBC.  It asks the question: Is climate change affecting hurricanes?

The article provides plenty of evidence that the answer is yes.

Below is a chart showing the number of powerful hurricanes over time.  You can see as we move from left to right the number of strong storms has increased.

In short, from the article, these effects of climate change may contribute to more intense hurricanes:

  • Warmer oceans means that storms can pick up more energy.
  • Increasing temperatures in the atmosphere allow the air to hold more moisture, leading to more intense rainfall.
  • Sea-levels are rising, and warmer water takes up more space. Storm surges like the ones predicted (up to 20 feet in Florida) now happen on top of already elevated sea levels,

The article concludes:

The number of tropical cyclones globally is unlikely to increase, according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The report referenced there is a treasure trove of information in knowledge in the relationship between extreme weather events and climate change.  Check it out!

But as the world warms, it says it is "very likely" they will have higher rates of rainfall and reach higher top wind speeds. This means a higher proportion would reach the most intense categories, four and five.

The more global temperatures rise, the more extreme these changes will tend to be.

The proportion of tropical cyclones reaching category four and five may increase by around 10% if global temperature rises are limited to 1.5C, increasing to 13% at 2C and 20% at 4C, the IPCC says - although the exact numbers are uncertain.

Overall, the IPCC concludes that there is "high confidence" that humans have contributed to increases in precipitation associated with tropical cyclones, and "medium confidence" that humans have contributed to the higher probability of a tropical cyclone being more intense.

If you compare 2017 plus (recent) with 2006 to 2016, here's the stark contrast:

As a project manager – or rather, a project leader, this means you’ll want to take this into account when assessing risk, and in considering sustainability in your project planning.  That’s what this blog is about, so stay tuned (or look through the archives) for ideas on how to do that. 

Here is a video showing the damage from Helene (over 50 people have been killed so far, unfortunately).

 

You may also want to consider how projects are being launched to acknowledge the frequency and intensity of these storms and to be more READY for them.  A follow-up post on this subject is coming.

UPDATE: Posting this on behalf of the outstanding author Ruth Pearce:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/copy-ask-all-experts-what-would-beryl-say-pt4-ruth-pearce-pcc-rz89e/?trackingId=GS5SkdCuRWO0EbMMWOj2VA%3D%3D

 

 


Posted by Richard Maltzman on: September 26, 2024 10:09 PM | Permalink

Comments (4)

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Kwiyuh Michael Wepngong
Community Champion
Financial Management Specialist | US Peace Corps Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon
thanks for this

avatar
Pavan Maddi
Community Champion
Buona Vista, Singapore
Great insights! Well-researched and presented in a very clear manner.

Thank you.

avatar
Chetna Wangnoo Product and Project Specialist| Bell Canada Missisauga, Ontario, Canada
Great Takeaways esp-As a project manager – or rather, a project leader, this means you’ll want to take this into account when assessing risk, and in considering sustainability in your project planning. Thank you

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