Canoyster
From the People, Planet, Profits & Projects Blog
by Richard Maltzman,
Dave Shirley
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Richard Maltzman
Dave Shirley
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Date
Our admittedly strange title this week comes from the smooshing together of two other words:
Canary
Oyster
Why those two animals? We stumbled on an interesting article from the Boston Globe about the increasing acid levels in the ocean and their effects on the oyster population in Maine. The piece that got our attention was this one:
“Hatcheries are the canary in the coal mine for the shellfish industry,” said Bill Mook, oyster hatchery owner. “Because of our level of control, we can see problems that others might not — and we were seeing really big problems.”
Let's make a project management connection here right away, because this story is generally about science and ocean acidity but we want our PM audience to see that there are indeed several important 'learning threads' here. The immediate connection is that of risk triggers. As a PM we need to know when a threat to project objectives is happening or is about to happen. Ideally, we prevent the threat from even being triggered - but the next best thing is to catch it as it is about to happen or as it has happened and before the major impact has taken place. Example: we think there may be a threat of a labor action which wold affect construction of our bridge. Instead of waiting for the union to strike, we watch the negotiations to see how they are going - we keep tuned to the news - so we know in advance if we need to apply a mitigation, transfer, or other risk treatment.
In this case, the issue is some pretty astounding numbers, and evidence, which should serve as a major trigger for mitigation of what appears to be a looming disaster for the oyster (and generally shellfish and other fishing) industry. Listen to some of these facts from the article:
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CO2 in the atmosphere from fossil fuels has made oceans on average 30 percent more acidic at the surface since the Industrial Revolution, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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NOAA scientists predict they will become 150 percent more acidic by 2100 — more than at any point in the past 20 million years.
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oceans are becoming acidic at a rate 100 times faster than at any time in the past 55 million years, he said. Changes that previously took more than 10,000 years, he said, are now occurring over a period of several decades.
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The mortality rates of bay scallop larvae are 30 percent higher in today’s waters than in those of the 1950s
Those are some pretty big 'canaries'. What threat do they embody? What impact on the "portfolio" of ocean life and the fishing industry do they represent? Check this out:
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If the oceans become acidic at expected rates, only 25 percent of clam larvae are expected to survive by 2100.
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more-acidic water leads to higher mortality, depressed growth, pitted shells, and lower survivability of larvae.
How about risk response? It may have to come in the form of further research and legislation. For example in Massachusetts:
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Tim Madden, a Nantucket Democrat, introduced a bill in January that would bring together lawmakers, fishermen, environmental advocates, and state officials on a commission that would recommend how the state should address acidification. The shellfish industry generates about $300 million in annual revenue for southern Massachusetts (just a small part of a small state).
But risk and threat is not the whole story here, and not the only 'thread' binding this example of the 'Planet' part of our blog's title, People, Planet, Proftits & Projects. The other (related) part is the long-term view. As PMs we know about units and how to get order-of-magnitude estimates, right? Read this paragraph and note the relative timeframes being mentioned (it also shows up earlier in the post):
"The oceans are becoming acidic at a rate 100 times faster than at any time in the past 55 million years, he said. Changes that previously took more than 10,000 years, he said, are now occurring over a period of several decades."
The relative times here are 10,000 years and several decades. "Several decades" is a timeframe beyond most of our projects, so our eyes may glaze over when we hear such long, drawn-out periods. But compare and contrast several decades (let's say 50 years for sake of argument) with 10,000 years. That relative relationship is one half of one percent. So even though it seems like a long time for us PMs, it's a blip on a bump on a mountain range of time.
Our point? If you'll allow us a shellfish metaphor, we need to come out of our shells a bit, and extend our thinking - in time, in focus, in impact assessment, in risk assessment - in a whole sea of aspects that we might not have had to do before. We have to think through to the impact of the operation of our project's product in its steady state. These are the sorts of impacts that have led (for example) to ocean acidification. I know - I know... we have enough constraints already. But unless you want your project to be one that contributes to the problems you see being triggered above, problems that come back and actuall affect your own industry monetarily as well as ecologically, it makes sense and is a professional responsibility to do so.
If not for yourself, do it for the canoysters!
Posted
by
Richard Maltzman
on: March 15, 2015 09:39 PM |
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