As project managers we are mightily aware of the fact that our Monitoring and Controlling processes look at the difference between planned (forecasted) and actual results. We watch, for example, how a vendor actually delivers compared to what they said they’d deliver, and if it’s different – either better or worse – that difference is a variance. We’re of course very focused on what that variance means in terms of our project deliverables.
Let’s kick it up a level. In fact, let’s kick it all the way up to the planetary level. That certainly is a move from project to portfolio level if ever there was one.
In a recent article in Scientific American (May 2015 – Waves of Destruction), the story is one that begins with seasickness – in this case a risk trigger that had oceanographer Jim Thompson realizing that larger-than expected waves were a root cause.
And the root cause of the large waves? Well, let’s go back to variance. Remember – that’s planned or forecasted versus actual. Artic simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change- the very organization often accused of overestimating the effects of climate change, ice melt, and global warming, were not predicting ENOUGH ‘ice retreats’. The decline in arctic ice is outpacing most of the models. The variance is there. Why?
We created the drawing below based on the effects identified in the article.
Notice a couple of things about this cycle, whether you believe in the science or not, and even if we got the cycle incorrectly:
· There are significant interdependencies between ocean currents, air currents, presence and absence of ice, and strength of waves
· If there are to be changes in the amount of sea ice, it will have effects not only on the arctic but also those which are geo-political and military (new drilling areas, changes in how nations can ‘reach’ each other by sea.
So what’s our point?
Well. For one thing, it cannot hurt to have some scientific background around what’s going on relative to our planet. You don’t have to agree, but making yourself aware of the research is a good thing. We suggest that you have a look at this article and the references that it in turn makes available. I suppose that’s not as much a point as a ‘point of order’.
Next, our point is to look for overarching variance. Just as we coach our PM students to look for overarching risk (see the video below, which has an ironic connection to ice, about overarching risk), we think you can look for overarching variances – things that will affect many of your projects, for which you may want to set aside management reserves. As we seem to be dealing with larger and more extreme weather, for example, this idea of overarching variance may unfortunately require that skill and capability more and more often.
