Pop goes Africa
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by Richard Maltzman,
Dave Shirley
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Date
Busy marketplace in Lagos, Nigeria. Photo courtesy of The Guardian.
We estimate that this blog post will take you about 3 minutes to read. Stop reading for just a moment, and pause. Make a picture in your mind of 240 newborn babies. That is how many infants will be born in Africa as you read this post.
Well, at least that is the forecast of the situation in 2050, according to a recent UN population study. (summary here). Eighty new babies born per minute in Africa alone.
Another way to put this, given the projections: African population growth would fill an empty London five times a year.
Okay, you say – that’s all very interesting, but what does this mean to me, to my organization, to me, to projects, to project management? What’s this doing in a project management blog?
Well, we blog about the triple-bottom line. That means economic, ecological, and social aspects of business and sustainability in general. The story that triggered this idea for us appeared in the most recent edition of Scientific American, and it came under that journal’s heading of sustainability. But when we dug deeper (that’s what we do for you here!) it turned up some very project-oriented data, information, knowledge, and wisdom.
As any good PM would do, let’s start with some orientation and some facts and figures:
Here’s a chart that pretty strikingly shows the difference in projected growth among the continents of the world:
So there is your population data, in pretty striking form. Here are some additional facts and figures:
- As many as 37 percent of young adults in sub-Saharan Africa say they want to move to another country, mostly because of a lack of employment.A mobile, talented, eager, young workforce is a factor when it comes to project resources, wouldn’t you agree?
- One huge change in Africa will be a mushrooming of gigantic cities. The continent’s population is increasingly drawn to the urban centers, with most people arriving from failed farmlands. Metropolitan areas in Africa house nearly half a billion people today; by 2050 they would hold more than 1.3 billion, according to the U.N.'s projections. You can read more about this in this article from the African Development Bank Group.
- As the size of any populace expands, governments must construct infrastructure rapidly, or risk a decline in living standards. This comes to 3.5 million more people per month.We already told you about the 80 additional people per minute. So you can see the dramatic effect on projects and project management – with that level of construction and infrastructure initiatives.
We’ve talked about the facts and the expected results. Let’s discuss the cause and ways to deal with it from a social perspective. It will lead to even more connections to ‘green by definition’ projects.
What has led to this population increase? It’s not just more babies. Ironically some of this comes from very good news, and is the result of projects and initiatives to improve the lot for Africans. For example, thanks to better practices in agriculture and the ability to move and store food (we’ve blogged about this recently), life expectancy has increased. “The 12 million Africans born in 1955 could expect to live only until the age of 37. Encouragingly, the 42 million Africans born this year can expect to live to the age of 60.” (see full article in The Guardian by clicking on the link).
So – the health of families has improved. People are living longer. One outcome is this burst in population. It’s apparent that this large population is not sustainable. What’s the best reaction to this?
According to Scientific American’s Robert Engleman the solution comes from empowering women. What’s the connection? Is there any evidence to show that it has worked? And, selfishly, is there any connection to project management?
From the Scientific American article:
“A significant fertility decline can be achieved only if women are empowered educationally, economically, socially and politically. They must also be given easy and affordable access to contraceptives. Following this integrated strategy, Mauritius has lowered its fertility rate from six to 1.5 children; Tunisia's rate dropped from seven to two. Men also have to relinquish sole control over the decision to have children and refrain from abusing wives or partners who seek birth control. For such efforts to succeed ultimately, government leaders must encourage public and policy conversations about slower population growth.”
There’s much more to that angle – we suggest reading the entire article. There’s other aspects also, though. Is there a connection to education of women?
Again, from the article:
“Education spurs young people to seek contraceptives and to plan smaller families as they learn about the world, their bodies and the potential to steer their own destinies. African women with no education have, on average, 5.4 children, according to the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Women who have completed primary school have, on average, 4.3 children. A big drop, to 2.7, correlates with completion of secondary school. For those who go on to college, fertility is 2.2.”
Yes, there are examples of projects that assist in family planning, in education, generally with population control and management. Here are a couple of examples.
http://www.familyplanning2020.org/
Three example USAID projects
Below are some of the references for this post. We encourage you to read more about this issue and the ways in which it may impact you as a project manager, no matter where you are in the world – and the potential for the impact in the opposite direction – that is, your ability to have an impact on the issue as a project manager.
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/jan/11/population-growth-in-africa-grasping-the-scale-of-the-challenge
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-34188248
http://www.techinsider.io/africas-population-explosion-will-change-humanity-2015-8
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/africa-s-population-will-soar-dangerously-unless-women-are-more-empowered/
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/birth-control-could-help-the-environment-but-not-quickly/
Posted
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Richard Maltzman
on: May 22, 2016 10:58 AM |
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Stanley Oranika
Director Finance & Strategy| Virtus Deus
F.C.T, Abuja, Nigeria
The exponential growth rate of population in Africa is astronomical. This is the same for human resources and potentials for innovative projects that can drive sustainability and improvement of standards of living.
This also presents a problem for dealing with the afterlife of projects, the bio-waste, the pollution and the carbon footprint. Chemicals will be used in fertilizers, plastics, sanitation issues, accessibility to affordable and effective health care, you name it; these present a daunting task, before the project, program and portfolio managers of this region.
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