What if?
From the People, Planet, Profits & Projects Blog
by Richard Maltzman,
Dave Shirley
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Dave Shirley
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Date
Photo by Donna Haecker/Associated Press
We know that some of you don’t believe that climate change – or global warming – whatever you choose to call it – is real.
But what if it is?
As project managers, aren’t we trained to look at threats and opportunities?
Aren’t we “what if” people? Shouldn’t we realize that there may even be some short-term threats or opportunities linked to climate change? You could ask the 63 members (and in particular the 13 who have been hospitalized) of the Nenet community in Western Siberia who have had to move due to an anthrax outbreak which started when a reindeer carcass, frozen for decades, defrosted in the past few weeks. Temperatures in this region of Siberia have risen to 95 degrees, compared with their average of 77 degrees (F).
In fact, the Alaskan village of Shishmaref just voted to launch a relocation project, moving their town to a new location on the Alaskan mainland. And if you think this is a unique issue, think again. According to this article from the New York Times:
Shishmaref is not alone in facing a move because of the effects of climate change. In January, the federal government allocated $48 million to relocate Isle de Jean Charles, La., an island that is sinking into the sea. The effort earned the residents the title of the United States’ first “climate refugees.”
Indeed, the article goes on to say, over 200 million people are at risk of becoming ‘climate refugees’ by 2050.
And the evidence certainly points to the fact that climate change is happening:
Still, you may be a cynic, despite the evidence. That’s okay - It doesn’t matter. The point of this post is not to convince you that climate change is real – it’s here to encourage you to expand your project management thinking, especially in the area of risk identification and analysis, with regards to climate change.
What If Scenario Analysis (WISA) is a way to let data help you with the process. An excellent article, including a video on the topic, is located here
http://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/what-if-scenario-analysis-WISA
Project management is specifically called out in the article, as follows:
In project management, for example, WISA can help users see how changing data for specific dates and costs changes the completion date and/or total cost of the project. Alternate calculations with various inputs enables a more informed prediction about potential outcomes and allows the business to plan how to handle the various scenarios quickly and effectively.
In your plans – especially for longer-term projects, have you thought about how a potential issue related to climate change could affect the project? And here comes the bigger, much more juicy, even controversial question:
Have you thought about your project outcome? Yes, its outcome. The final deliverable, turned over to the customer, chugging out benefits which the customer is happily realizing, for years, for decades…? In your risk identification, you should be thinking about threats and opportunities in this ‘benefits realization’ stage as well. Thinking about your project in this way helps you not only identify risks, it helps you identify with your customer, and shifts you from being a project manager (which is still a good thing, don’t get me wrong) to something better: an outcome enabler. An outcome enabler is more connected to the goals and objectives of your own organization and the goals and objectives of your customer’s organization – and that’s pure goodness.
I suggest you follow the links in this article and if you are still unconvinced about climate change, that’s perfectly fine. But look at the effects pointed to and apply that long-term thinking not only to your project plan but into the consideration of your project’s outcome.
What if you did that?
Posted
by
Richard Maltzman
on: August 20, 2016 02:36 PM |
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Comments (2)
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 | Anonymous |
I do not think there are any people out here who deny climate change. The issue is whether this climate change is caused by human processes, or is it really part of the natural cycle of climate, as evidenced in the history of the planet.
| Anonymous |
Scott, thanks for your comment - that's a good observation. There is a lot of evidence to indicate that human processes are at least 'involved'. But regardless, I'd argue that whatever the cause, we as project managers should understand that - as a reality - we need to understand the threats and even opportunities of a changing climate.
I'd further assert that even if you do not think human processes are causing climate change, there are still human processes that can affect the environment. See the latest post about microbeads, entitled "Eww." - here's a simple choice we could make as launchers of products that can reduce our impact, whether it's climate-related or not. Sometimes it's just a matter of making good long-term project decisions.
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