Backward Pass - Forward Fail?
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by Richard Maltzman,
Dave Shirley
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Date
In Part 1 of this post, we left off with this:
NARRATOR: But the models can be checked against things we know, like air temperature over the past hundred years. The models can be started in the past and run forward. The blue line shows the average of those predictions.
When compared with the actual temperature record, in red, their accuracy is revealed.
Below is a screenshot that compares the model output for temperature when run backward (blue) against the actuals (red) – you can see that the alignment is pretty good, speaking to the ability of the model to forecast. So what happens when you let the model run forward?
As a reminder, I was discussing the Public Broadcasting System’s NOVA broadcast, “Decoding the Weather Machine”.
The documentary covers a lot of ground, but I had focused Part 1 on the idea of modeling and the concept of a “World Breakdown System” used by scientists to slice up the globe (and atmosphere) into chunks that we can reassemble into reliable data. If this sounds like a Work Breakdown Structure, well, that’s why this post exists – my PM antennae went up as I watched this segment.
So indeed, what does happen when this simulation model, based on a “World Breakdown Structure” is run forward?
I’d paraphrase, but it just won’t do the show justice. Let me share what happens next:
JOHN HOLDREN: Computer models don't exist in isolation. We calibrate them against what we've observed. We test them against the history of climate change. And we now know they're pretty good.
NARRATOR: The models can be used to run a virtual experiment: if we continue emitting carbon dioxide on the path we are on, what do they say our world will look like in 2100?
This map shows how temperatures could change. The models predict the average temperature could be 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit hotter. That means in New York City, days with temperatures over 90 degrees would more than triple. And in the Arctic, which will heat up even faster, it could rise, on average, more than 15 degrees.
HEIDI CULLEN: One of the things we understand really well about our climate system is that if you crank up the average temperature of the planet, it is going to fundamentally change your weather.
JOHN HOLDREN: Their results suggest we will see more Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, and the prevalence of devastating heatwaves will be much more extreme.
NARRATOR: The models also show that by the end of the century, it is likely the ocean will rise one-and-a-half to four feet. Without major changes, this would put parts of cities like Miami under water.
And new insights are coming in all the time. The work of David Holland and other scientists suggests that if large parts of western Antarctica break off, eight feet or more of sea level rise by 2100 is not out of the question.
DAVID HOLLAND: All bets are off for Antarctica. That is a place where very large sea level rise, on the scale of 100 years, is quite possible. That doesn't mean it will happen; but it actually could physically happen.
NARRATOR: The road ahead is a world that could be increasingly hard to live in. The question now is what can we do about it to reduce the possible damage?
PAUL DOUGLAS: We're going to figure this out, because, in the end, we are not going to have a choice; we're going to have to figure this out.
NARRATOR: The path ahead comes down to three basic options (Suffer, Adapt, or Mitigate – see this post's header image). We can do nothing and suffer the consequences;…
…we can adapt as the changes unfold, or we can act now to mitigate, or limit the damage. The options are connected. The more we mitigate, the less we would need to adapt. The more we adapt and mitigate, the less we would suffer.
JOHN HOLDREN: Society has only three options; and if we want to minimize suffering, as should be our goal, we need to maximize both mitigation and adaptation.
Again, another connection to project management – this time in the area (I’m sure you sense it) of Risk Response. “Suffer” would be Passive Acceptance in our language – do nothing, not even setting aside contingency. Adapt, in our language, would be mitigate the impact, and what they call mitigate would be mitigating probability and impact*.
Suffer: I won’t even go here, because that is just not an option.
Adapt: In the program, they refer to the efforts of US city Norfolk, VA and the way it is working to adapt, since it is facing impact of climate change right now – streets are already regularly flooding there. See this recent article from the New York Times: “When Rising Seas Transform Risk Into Certainty”. If you watch the show, watch the part in which they interview Colonel Jason Kelly of the US Army Corps of Engineers.
Mitigate: Reduce the use of fossil fuels. An example of a Whirlpool’s Findlay, Ohio. Watch the interview with Dale Laws about how this factory has converted to renewable energy. They also take you to NREL (the National Renewable Energy Laboratory near Denver, Colorado. They are an innovation hub for renewable energy. They’re working on reinventing solar cells using perovskites, tame algae to create a new form of jet fuel, and improve the way wind power generates power.
The forward pass – what the simulator shows us – is not very rosy. But it does underline the need for us to choose a combination of Adapt and Mitigate, and luckily, that means that project managers can be key contributors to reduced suffering – and that’s no BS.
**one could argue that what they discuss as “Mitigate” is actually “Avoid”, because the work here is about “changing the plan completely”. This aspect is not worth arguing – the point is that this is all about risk response.
Posted
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Richard Maltzman
on: June 23, 2018 03:25 PM |
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Comments (6)
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It gives a new concept to beach living. We might be swimming at the foot of mountains before too long.
Rami Kaibni
Community Champion
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten Associates
New Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Good information Richard.
Hazem Ebeid
Project Control Lead / Planning & Scheduling.| Shell Energy - Canada
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Jason Muckley
Senior Project Manager| Teledyne Monitor Labs
Littleton, Co, United States
Content is interesting. Thank you
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