Five Bright Signs for 2021 on Sustainability

 

I thought it would be a good idea to start 2021 on a positive note – about climate change.  You know – the other existential problem we have as a globe right now?

I will draw heavily from this BBC article, called “Why 2021 Could Be a Turning Point for Tackling Climate Change”, by Justin Rowlatt, which actually starts off a little gloomily. 

… we’re way off track to meet carbon-cutting goals. On current plans the world is expected to breach the 1.5 degrees C ceiling within 12 years or less and to hit 3C of warming by the end of the century.  What could turn that around?

Luckily, it gets more optimistic.

There are five points made in the article, aimed at answering that last question. I will summarize them for you briefly and provide a project management angle as well.

1. The crucial climate conference

2. Countries are already signing up to deep carbon cuts

3. Renewables are now the cheapest energy ever

4. COVID-19 changes everything

5. Business is going green too

#1 The Climate Conference – COP26, Glasgow

There have been 25 COPs (Conference of Parties) so far.  The most famous, of course, was the Paris COP (#21), at which most nations agreed to cut carbon outputs.  Read more about the Paris Agreement here.  Under the terms of the Paris deal, countries promised to come back every five years and raise their carbon-cutting ambitions. That was due to happen in Glasgow in November 2020, but COVID-19 aborted that plan.  It is now scheduled in Glasgow but much later in the year (read on).

The Bureau of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), with the UK and its Italian partners, agreed today new dates for the COP26 UN climate conference, which will now take place between 1 and 12 November 2021 in Glasgow.

The agreement followed consultation with UNFCCC members, delivery partners and the international climate community. The conference was originally set to take place in November 2020, but had been postponed due to COVID-19.

The decision on the new date comes as the UK Government announces that over 25 experts in multiple global sectors will be advising the COP26 Presidency.  Here is the announcement of that change:

While we rightly focus on fighting the immediate crisis of the Coronavirus, we must not lose sight of the huge challenges of climate change. With the new dates for COP26 now agreed we are working with our international partners on an ambitious roadmap for global climate action between now and November 2021. The steps we take to rebuild our economies will have a profound impact on our societies’ future sustainability, resilience and well-being and COP26 can be a moment where the world unites behind a clean resilient recovery.

Everyone will need to raise their ambitions to tackle climate change and the expertise of the Friends of COP will be important in helping boost climate action across the globe.

Alok Sharma, COP26 President and Secretary of State for the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

If you want to get involved, COP26 is encouraging you to visit “The Race To Zero” which you can learn about here.  Race To Zero is a global initiative, backed by science-based targets, to commit businesses, cities, regions, investors and universities to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 at the very latest.

#2 - Countries already signing up

At the UN General Assembly in September, the Chinese President, Xi Jinping unexpectedly announced that China aimed to go carbon neutral by 2060.

From the article:

Environmentalists were stunned. Cutting carbon has always been seen as an expensive chore yet here was the most polluting nation on earth - responsible for some 28% of world emissions - making an unconditional commitment to do just that regardless of whether other countries followed its lead.

A very insightful video from the Wall Street Journal, from which I’ve taken some important screenshots, discusses this – and I’m sure you can see below (from the graphics alone) what this means for the launching of new projects, programs, and portfolios related to this mammoth effort.

To achieve this goal, China will need to launch a portfolio of programs and projects.  The sheer size is astounding – it will take 5 to 20 Trillion $US to make this transition.  We’re talking about carbon capture, and a massive switch away from coal to renewable energy.  Looking at these figures - imagine the depth and breadth of project management prowess it will take to oversee this transition.

On top of this transition of energy supply, it’s also about energy use.  Look at the way number of forecasted electric vehicles dwarfs the current number – that ball on the left representing a planet 7 times the size of Jupiter and the little pink ball representing Earth.  We’re talking about a nearly 100-fold increase in just 30 years.

China's Huge Transition to Electric Vehicles by 2050

#3 - Renewables are getting cheaper

To learn about this in a fun way, check out the interactive graph here.

With it you can find (sorry, US only) data for the entire country or go state-by-state, with Texas shown as an example to look at the rise of renewables.

From the article:

That is because the cost of renewables follows the logic of all manufacturing - the more you produce, the cheaper it gets. It's like pushing on an open door - the more you build the cheaper it gets and the cheaper it gets the more you build.

Think what this means: investors won't need to be bullied by green activists into doing the right thing, they will just follow the money. And governments know that by scaling up renewables in their own economies, they help to accelerate the energy transition globally, by making renewables even cheaper and more competitive everywhere.

As evidence of the dropping costs of renewables, have a look at this data from energypost.eu:

(PV is Photovoltaic – solar panels, and CSP is Concentrated Solar Power)

#4 - COVID changes everything

I’m not going to dwell on this (after all, this was supposed to be an optimistic New Year’s Day post) but it should be clear that there are immediate effects (less travel, factories at reduced levels, building occupancy down) as well as lasting effects (switch to more virtual work locations on a more permanent basis).  You can look at the curve and see that the curve does bend down a bit.

# 5 - Business is going green, too

From the article:

The falling cost of renewable and the growing public pressure for action on climate is also transforming attitudes in business.

There are sound financial reasons for this. Why invest in new oil wells or coal power stations that will become obsolete before they can repay themselves over their 20-30-year life?

Indeed, why carry carbon risk in their portfolios at all?

The logic is already playing out in the markets. This year alone, Tesla's rocketing share price has made it the world's most valuable car company.

Meanwhile, the share price of Exxon - once the world's most valuable company of any kind - fell so far that it got booted out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average of major US corporations.

All told, there are 5 things to get your positive attitude boost for the start of 2021 – at least with respect to climate change and sustainability-in-project-management thinking!

Happy New Year!  Stay safe and remain hopeful!